Hi, I'm concerned about logic successions like: high oil price -> person cuts retail spending because of constant gas demand -> retail brands get low terrorists' attack -> high oil price hurricane in Florida -> high lumber producers price successful operations of german submarines -> less vessel transporting coffee -> coffee price when reserve run out gets high (example from "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator") tax reporting time -> low crypto/currency price due to its withdrawal Could you please advice books/stuff to learn more about such knowledges as a whole? Maybe they are odd/obvious, but still.
I'm afraid that's not exactly how things work after years and years of my observation and reading. Those who have the power to move the markets, set foreign policies, and start conflicts around the world also happen to own or have the power to influence all the mainstream media outlets. The general rule regarding media narratives is that "logic doesn't apply" because more often than not, those who talk don't know, and those who know don't talk. Throw in the propaganda / disinformation campaigns (e.g. WMD in Iraq, chemical weapons in Syria, North Korean threats etc) aimed to justify outrageous military spending or military operation at the expense of taxpayers, following the media for logical analysis is a fool's errand IMHO.
events don't happen in isolation. perhaps what you describe above is the tipping point. read the book tipping point by malcom gladwell.
In my book, understanding of fundamentals and the knowledge of events are over-rated. If for example I learn there has been bad weather in a major coffee-growing region, I might suppose the price of coffee will rise, as processors and retailers compete to secure adequate supplies. And if I knew this before the big players I could go long on coffee while its cheap and then when they have to start buying coffee, I will make a fortune. But how can I possibly know this and buy in before they do?
To start: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.ph...ltext=1&searchToken=3gi3f0hy5dw99ehzcljup7l95 To delve a bit further: 1) any standard econ textbook you find for $1 at Goodwill, etc. 2) From Uncle Milty: https://books.google.com/books/about/Price_Theory.html?id=BxaSUfPV2WkC 3) And from one of my all-time favs, George Stigler: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/416114.The_Theory_of_Price This is very standard stuff, and the more elementary explanation you find, the more it (should) make up for that, by being entertaining. (!!!) Have fun! OMG: Freakin GOLDMINE: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=economic+substitutes+and+complements
This is probably the best recent text: Cochrane lays out current theory pretty well, which is a bit surprising given the polemical nature of some of his blog posts and media appearances. Also available via libgenisis.
2+2=5 in markets Just because something happens now, 3 years from now when it happens again the outcome is not guaranteed. My win rate in trading is only roughly 45% too...
Just thinking out loud...If there are any books about Warren Buffet it might be good. He would buy when everyone was bailing on a stock or industry. I would look at this closed end mutual fund Royce Value Trust (RVT). I would look at their top ten stocks...See what they invest in and why. What does his fund see that we don't. The last is my old stand by..."The Millionaire Next Door"...A must read. It's old, but still applies to today... https://www.google.com/aclk?sa=l&ai...hUKEwjAj__X8KnbAhUNwlkKHRVqB_YQ9aACCDU&adurl= https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...nextdoor.htm&usg=AOvVaw3l5I_g8A0lSZvSVSMamxIJ
"But how can I possibly know this and buy in before they do?" John Kay MAY 28, 2013 In 1815, the combined forces of Britain and Prussia defeated Napoleon’s army at the Battle of Waterloo. It was, said the Duke of Wellington, a damn close run thing. But even before the dust had settled on the battlefield, a carrier pigeon belonging to the House of Rothschild was on its way across the Channel to London. Nathan Rothschild, informed ahead of other traders that the country was not to be over-run by the French, consequently made a killing by buying British government bonds. https://www.ft.com/content/255b75e0-c77d-11e2-be27-00144feab7de there are coffee traders who have connections in Nicaragua etc. that is how they are ahead of the market.