https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnna...n-interview-with-michael-harris/#76cf945d4733 https://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/author/mharris/ Harris: The world progresses and so does technical analysis. Methods of the past that are still popular do not work well. Technical analysis is a broad field and covers a wide spectrum of analysis based on price and volume. For example, machine-learning with price action attributes is also technical analysis. My research indicates that any anomalies in price action that offer profit opportunities are of very short-term nature and usually last 1 to 5 days. In my opinion, the key to profitable trading is identifying methods that in turn identify market anomalies before others do. Under this category fall some advanced technical analysis methods: statistical arbitrage, meanreversion trading, price action anomalies and long/short equity, to name a few. Traders should be prepared to put significant time and effort in analyzing and applying these methods. Traditional anomalies, such as momentum for example, are at risk because there is no barrier to entry and have been heavily publicized recently. Although investing may be a positive-sum game, trading the markets is a zero-sum game. The profits of winners must come from the losses of the losers, there is no other way. If many people use the same methods, some must lose necessarily. Although some anomalies may appear robust, eventually all past anomalies disappear and replaced by new ones. Navin: Anything else, Michael? Harris: There are still some chart pattern traders who claim that although most patterns fail if they can be right 20% of the time they can profit because they make on the average a lot more than they lose, i.e., the payoff ratio is high. The first problem with this claim is that a low win rate exposes the trader to a large risk of ruin. Even when tossing a fair coin a long streak of tails is possible before the relative frequency starts converging to 0.5. Now imagine what can happen if the coin is biased 80% tails: a long sequence of losing trades is more than certain. Then, a low win rate reduces the average trade, a metric often confused with the expectation, or mean of the distribution of returns. I show in my book that chart pattern traders with low win rate but high payoff ratio, must trade much more frequently than even short-term position traders. This in turn exposes them to higher probability of ruin and also forces them to look at many different markets, some of which may be too efficient or too illiquid for trading chart patterns. As a last comment I would like to point out that managing risk is as important as the trading method used, especially in the case of new traders. A trading method can be profitable in the longer-term but in the short-term can generate large losses and cause ruin. Traders can minimize the probability of ruin by taking positions with small and manageable risk. Although the bulk of technical analysis literature focuses on trading methods, many of which are already outdated, little has been written about realistic and practical risk management because it is a dull subject and does not generate sales for publishers. However, practical risk management protects traders from short-term ruin and gives them the opportunity to realize a positive return when their method turns profitable.
%% I'm not a mind reader.But sounds like short term sarcasm.WHY??Jim Rogers noted bottoms are found on a 10 year chart. As far as how i handle sarcasm, i tend to profit from it + 3 year charts.,. Stocks are still in bull market ; oil looks like, trends like a bear market.
Recognizing Reversals from the Top/Highs sometimes helpful, Inverted Hammer, Hanging Man, Shooting Star we'll see what happens here on a 30m nq, https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...o-man-and-beast-right-here-baby.335635/page-5
https://www.sierrachart.com/SupportBoard.php?ThreadID=45536#post_last https://elitetrader.com/et/search/9659185/?q=tom+demark&o=date&c[title_only]=1 https://www.seeitmarket.com/understanding-the-basics-of-demark-setups/ .
the question I have is can one recognize that in real-time and not with hindsight? I think I'm very close to recognizing climatic bottoms in real-time and buy it there. I can't say the same about tops..
with that, i'd say, it's like alcohol, it can make you new friends, and it can get you fired from your job. depends on you, brother. 1) what's the time in the title bar of this pic? (linked above at little red arrow circle thing there. 2)what's the time in the title bar of this pic? . . . you tell me. to be more clear, I suppose I should add that the trade was a short prompted by a shooting star at resistance. if that isn't clear, pls let me know, . . . there we go, we aim to please, mr trader99 cheers here's some more fodder for the Tom DeMark 9-count. adbe
He further added that “Failure Swings above 70 or below 30 are very strong indications of a market reversal.” https://www.elearnmarkets.com/blog/rsi-failure-swings/