Discussion in 'Economics' started by tradingboy, Jan 15, 2008.

  1. IMO: Bear market is coming. Why? the interest cuts are already priced in, job numbers can only go worse, consumer sales are off projections, just wait for the Christmas sales reports, adjustable mortgage resets will peak in March thus the financial crisis is not over + home sales data will be readjusted to even lower numbers. Add to this inflation including gasoline and food (wholesale numbers). And exclude govenment orders from economy growth numbers, and see what we are left with.

    Thank you A.Greenspan! Whateven fueled comsumer spending in the last years, i.e. home refinancing and home equity loans aren't there any more. The home ATM is closed. Thus consumers will spend less and consumers account for 2/3 of spendings in US.

    Today: If Intel would have reported miss in revenue during the regular trading session, Nasdaq would have been off 100 points, Dow Jones 350/400 points.

    What would gov do? lower taxes, may be $600 per household tax rebate, lower interest rates an let the inflation go higher. Dollar will fall even further against Euro during 2008.

  2. I feel that we've been in a bear market since the assination of Bhutto. Everything else is just a longer time horizon.

    But I hear ya

  3. I have seen this happen. NASDAQ fall in 2000, oh yea things look cheap. Look at 2001. Anyways not 2000, but 2001 killed it at least the shop that I was in. I heard overexcited comments same sort on the phone today.
  4. We are already in a recession gentlemen. Nothing the FED can do about it either. Recessions are NEEDED from time to time. Put them off too long by artificially micromanaging instead of letting markets take care of it, and then they just get uglier. This is gonna be ugly and global. Of course I've been saying this for about a year now, so I could definitely be wrong.

  5. "Recessions are NEEDED from time to time" AGREED. Too bad that somebody wants to prolong the pain by cheap money infusions. There is enough cash out there already, but who wants to take a loss? right, nobody.
  6. We are in a bad recession...
    Look at how bad December Retail sales were. Restaurants are dying a slow death. People have cut back big time. Where is the spending going to come from? Houses? nope Jobs? nope Stocks? nope....we
    are so deep in debt from the consumer to the Country that a prolonged miserable recession is here to stay.

    Worst problem is that we are having inflation due to oil.
    This is really wiping out the consumer. I don't see how
    some companies like Electronics retailers etc will survive.

    Thanks GW have been wonderful.

  7. Just donot make yourself dizzy with "fear" you won't be able to wash dishes in the kitchen sink....

    I say bring on the BEAR MARKET- we will short the hell out of NDX , bear call spreads, put spreads, skip strike butterflies, the whole kit and kaboodle and the kitchen sink thrown at it. Just bring it on man......serious money will be made the same old fashioned way.

  8. I can confidently make money regardless of market direction. Can't you? So whats there to be afraid of? I say bring it on...