Prices Received By American Farmers 2/2007 Versus 2/2008 Q4 2007 Versus All of 2006 Projected 2008 Versus Actual 2006 ( 07 vs 08) (Q4 07 vs all of 06) ( Projected 08) Food Grains + 93.5% + 75.9% + 123.4% Commercial Vegetables - 32.1% + 31.6% + 25.7% Meat Animals No Change - < 1% + 14.6% Fruits and Nuts No Change No Change + 6.0% Dairy Products + 29.8% + 67.3% + 66.2% Poultry and Eggs + 17.3% + 28.2% + 41.8% The case for Stagflation has not been made logically as of yet. IMHO we are in a Recession, well into a recession that will really be felt by mid summer. The consumer is not buying MORE, they are PAYING MORE for all items from ENERGY to FOOD! We as a nation are not producing more. The GDP number under-estimates what individuals are spending, families are spending on food, Gas, etc vrs their Disposable income. The idiots believe that high fuel and Food Coast are "Temporary". World Wide competition for available "NATURAL RESOURCES" as well as Agriculture Products, (WHEAT, CORN, Etc), will drive prices far higher. Production Cost for the items are rising faster than you can say ohh shit. US consumers will be paying 6 bucks for Gas, IMHO by Next Summer, if not higher. There is nothing going on in the World Oil markets that would cause any bright person to believe that ENERGY PRICES will fall in 08/09 or even into 2010. Best case situation is for Energy/Oil prices to be at the current 08 levels, 110-120 per barrel. The only educated guess for weaker oil prices, if the World Economy is dragged down by the current recession, which is going to become deeper and deeper. If the US drags the Global Economies down, Oil may dip, all be if for a brief quarter or two....at most. How far down, no idea but I would say it would be safe say to buy oil at 90 if that happens. Clothing, Housing, Recreation, etc are going to be luxuries for the wealthy. The average consumer will not be able to to do much with their very weak purchasing power by end of summer. This is not doom and gloom. This is wake the F&*^( up and stop crying. But from my day to day activities and research, I have yet to see any sign of "Stagflation" at this moment. Everything is pointing to Inflation and Hyper-Inflation in Energy, Food.