recession question and stock market

Discussion in 'Trading' started by z32000, Nov 13, 2007.

  1. z32000


    is it possible for recession to take place while the stock market is rising?
  2. yes

    imo, the healthier the countries governance and laws are and the more free the economy is, the more better the stock market resembles the economy

    in third world countries the stock market is too distant from reality and is most likely not a good picture of the countries economy
  3. lindq


    A recession, by definition, is negative growth over a period of at least 2 quarters. Given that, it would be difficult to expect the stock market to be rising, except during short term countertrend movements.
  4. Yes, they're mutually exclusive. Coincidental Wall Street's function is selling paper. They devote 24/7 efforts to it. IF they still have "inventory" the majority will remain reasonably buoyant.

    Stocks "bottom" in unisom and top one by one marching to their own drummer.

    Hmmmm, WHO is the drummer?

    Hint, IF I had a daugter, I want her to marry one.
  5. lindq


    No, they aren't.

    The FALL in the stock market from the peak of the business cycle to the market lowest level in the recession was 21.0% in the 1970 recession, 33.88% in the 1974-75 recession, 10.6% in the 1980 recession, 18.2% in the 1981-82 recession, 14.6% in the 1990 recession, 10.3% in the 2001 recession.
  6. Could be that the point is moot. You may never see a recession again in your lifetime.

    The Gummint and Fed currently define "growth and GDP" in terms of "price of goods and services produced/sold". This measure includes a very strong inflation component, making it difficult for an "inflated growth rate" to be negative.

    Put another way, the Gummint will likely ALWAYS be telling us "growth is great, inflation is low... don't worry, be happy" even while the majority of Americans suffer financially.