That is right . Gold goes up when the stock markets go down. Flight to safety. Somehow people feel safe owning goldbars.
I can relate to that, but someone said 'gold is on fire'. In itself a rise of 12% in value is not 'on fire' in my book. And if you consider that the value is EURos (the currency of the largest economy in the world) has only risen a percent or 2, it's more like a glowing candle maybe.
So much negative talk, recession, bear market, end of the world. Man these witches are coming out of woodworks. One rate cut by Feds in a surprise ( Remember August 2007 move ) and these bears will be smoking holy water to heaven.
I'm going to endure the irritating promotional breaks and start watching CNBC again. seems there is some real side splitting comedy available.
For days I have been hitting home a simple thesis: recession is not here, we are not in recession. But the naysayers, pessimists, dimwits, bears and whole assortment of nitpicks came out swinging axes at me. Well today we received Fed's official word known as BEIGE BOOK report during market hours and according to INVESTORS BUSINESS DAILY at www.investors.com here is the truth: "BY SCOTT STODDARD INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 1/16/2008 The economy expanded at a slower pace in the final weeks of 2007, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday, but continued growth was enough to ease fears of a recession. Now start reputing these facts..
You might want to give some thought as to what a 'lagging indicator' might be. Hint: GDP and most figure lag reality, stock market is usually a leading indicator.
IMPLANTED FEAR is the best leading indicator. When you are alone at night and trying to go to sleep, something grinds you at the core. That's what has been drummed up recently and implanted on usual morons by our big institutional traders such as Goldman Sachs etc when they are manipulating markets in certain directions.
Bush's 145 billion dollars spending package will add 0.5 to the GDP next quarters and he will pool in some more to keep the GDP afloat from contracting. How is that for good news? Still not convinced recessions do not occur in election years? Go see a shrink and get that depressive psychosis lifted. No delusions please..
What's more likely tho, a recession during an election year or a bear market during an election year. We are in a bear market right now, and I dont see any reversal for new highs comming. I dont think extended bear markets happen when the economy is still growing, but I could be wrong. We'll see how long it lasts. When the S&P starts putting up new 52 week highs I will agree with you. Until then, Im going with the trend. 8s
Recessions do not happen when politicos have seats to win and stay in power. You know how many Congressional seats are at risk? Get that in your heads. Bush Admin is jumping all over it like a hot bunny. Congress is hung ho and so is the Fed Reserve. With all the might and power of US Government on one side, you want to bet for the wrong odds? They will be cutting rates from here to kingdom come till the beast dies. Markets do not go down straight, they never do, there will be lots of spikes to the upside, and we just have to wait an see if this turns into a bear market at some point or not. FYI the markets have to correct 20% + some from the October highs to be called a bear market, otherwise its merely a correction and we are not there yet, so quit whining and moaning ....