You want to know whether we are in a recession? Just track the stocks that that manufacture the only products that sell during a recession; booze and cigarettes. Hey is that a breakout on the Altria Group (MO) ? Just, My2¢¢
Well stated. I got my FL voter registration in the mail the other day....I'm voting for Ron Paul. There is no question.
Breakout in MO is not indicative of a recession. It takes 2 quarters of negative economic growth at least define a recession. There has not been 2 negative quarters yet, or you seen it somewhere that I don't know of ? Besides, that is called flight to safety. When the market goes down talking heads come out talking about consumer staples and defensive stocks like MO , BMY, VZ, CVS etc.
The have been cutting rates genius, and will probably continue to do so. What is apparent to me is that you don't understand that the rate cuts are almost like firing blanks with the type of problem we are in this time. lower rates will not stop this bleeding as this is a problem of low rates, loose lending and leverage. "While rate cuts will help in general, the problem is that rate cuts won't help the credit crisis, won't solve the problem of credit default swaps, and won't bring back the subprime market. These are problems we simply have to work our way through, and it is going to take time." -John Mauldin http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo010408.pdf
Recession is NOT here. This is a scare tactic used by institutional traders. It takes 2 quarters of negative economic growth just to arrive at a definition of a recession. Have we seen that yet?
C'mon guys a recession is here and going to take full hold in the coming quarter. The entire multi year run has been created by flooding the street with cheap/free paper. As a result you end up with oil, gold, grains, up 100's of % and you have a dollar declining so fast its not even funny. America is being robbed of its weath by a government that has no clue about policy. Financials led the entire market higher and they are going to lead this entire market much lower. Yes they are going to lower rates as fast as they can, which we all know is the only thing that can help, but there comes a time when all the cheap paper meets debt and throughout all of history debt always wins. Businesses that consume far more than they produce fail. People who spend far more than they earn always lose, and the fed thinks they are exempt and can continue on a path to destruction. I don't even think we are close to panic selling, stops, calls etc etc. Except in CFC today. That was panic and if things arent far worse there than we are being told I'll be suprised. They needed to halt the stock and ensure inverstors all is still well. Then it gets absolutely destroyed to $5.00. Heard it all before and likely they are in serious trouble. Either it is going to be the best investment to the end of the decade or BK in 6 months. People are blind to what is on the horizon and thank god it is an election year because change is needed, and if I could vote, Ron Paul would win my vote for sure. He's never going to win but he is the only candidate smart enough to know what is going on and give any chance to correcting it. It's going to be a great year for trading though and I hope everyone makes a killing on days like today. Looks like there are going to be many more in the coming weeks. Lots of data ahead and FOMC to end the month. Good luck guys, MM
We should talk in reality otherwise its speculation and theory. When that happens we'll talk. It has to be 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP! In an election year ? I donot think so. Fed will be cutting rates all over. Till than its a scarecrow waved at the retail public to pin them into submission hold.
How much weight CFC has in the SPX or NDX ? Hunh? I mean the sky is not falling. Speculation about recession is rampant when the reality hasn't afforded us any proof whatsoever! Some people even think that recession can happen without anyone knowing it? Oh yeah? GDP numbers come out every quarter and when that happens let your fears become fears, right not your fears are speculative bullcrap and a mere fantasy. Back it up with hard numbers or I win the argument.
Goldman sachs out today calling for us to go into a recession if we are not already in one. Sorry Day, Goldman holds more water than your "oh shit, I am long in my portfolio, how can I convince others to not sell, the market is just fine!??!"