I remember 2003-2004. I sat and watched the market rise day after day because it was overbought. RSI was pegged on daily and weekly. But the market kept moving higher. It did this through the Index futures, they would jam them up ever freaking night the cash market would gap open then move sideways this went on month after month. I was so pissed for sitting on the sidelines. I have seen this movie before. Just buy a dip and sit tight. These money mannagers are in panic mode. I lighten up on big moves higher, then add back on the dips, but I hold a core position.
When the retailers are getting back in it will be time to jump ship. Got to feel sorry for the retailers, they got out at the bottom in sheer panic and with all the recent doom and gloom they are now having to endure watching the bull run from the sidelines. The feelings of regret and of missing out on the bull must be hard to live with with, if they are not in yet they won't be able to hold out for much longer.
My personal prediction for SPX is we will see it continue to rise to at least 1090. If it can make it past 1090 then look for a consolidation period between 1090 and 1165. If it can't break above 1090 look for a pretty big dip, potentially as far down as 850's.
Technically we have the mother of all gaps at 1098. Another reason to get bullish is for this gap to close -- we have to punish the panic sellers on 10/6/2008...
Steve Grasso on kudlows show said there is nothing but straight up to s&p 1100 from here, said its going to happen. I guess that 2 day 100 point drop in the s&p will take about 1-2 weeks to fill, so figure by mid august s&p 1100 will be here. Its like giving free money to the bulls, just go long all indexes and sit tight, you will profit no matter what.
I don't think I will profit no matter what. In fact, I am selling every day that you have been selling. The difference is that I am still long and taking profits as it rallies. Will the market go down faster than up? Possibly -- but that is why I get paid to take on this insurance risk that no one else is willing to...one of the reasons trend following works.
Carl Swenlin of decisionpoint.com, an analyst I highly respect, believes the S&P will reach a minimum of 1200. If that's the case, oil will reach high levels also, and that will cripple an already tight consumer spending. My guess is 1200 will be the top.
As equities move higher so will oil, 1200 on the s&p and $110+ oil would be here no questions asked, however $90-$100 oil is equal to $150 oil this time around, with 15 million people out of work and the government throwing trillions into the economy to prop it higher tells you how bad the consumer is doing. Higher oil prices will completely put this entire economic recovery on hold. There is no way a collapsing dollar and higher oil prices can be sustained at this point in the economy.
Digs, good chart....but never the less, the train has left the station and the fools are running after it on the tracks. Can't fight this run....even though...IMHO its another 1929 bounce. Weds, thurs and the close of this week will give clues to INDU 10000 or not. A lot of money managers, 401k junkies and the like with the new Short Sale rule in place.... as well as all those Stock Brokers left with clients, can not miss this Rally....they have to jump in. Im still heavy OIL and have been buying every dip in oil.....however....I'm looking to take half off in oil and get ready to Short the shit out the Dow Futures. However, not gona put any shorts on till a see a crack in the Wall this market is climbing.... I do not see any reason to short at this moment....but give it some time.....August has just started and Sept/Oct are around the corner. Congress will be back in session in a month.... All data including housing (Still down 70% for highs), upticked and many are blowing the Bull Horn....... The bleeding may have stop'd ......but I see nothing to indicate a full recovery or a slight recovery or even a bull market...