a true indicator of being overbought on the SPY, DIA and over sold on the VIX...move slow here popeye
For those of you who recognize the name Liz Ann Sonders, she declares that the recession is over! So go buy!
http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/28/markets/thebuzz/index.htm?postversion=2009082812 When the media publishes articles such as "Stop the market insanity", you know that the bull market will continue. The media is always wrong -- and they are calling the rally insane. But is it really insane? Look at the 10 year return of the stock market -- what should the return of the next 10 years be so that we average our 7-10% annual returns?
The realized volatility is 16 while the implied is 25 for SPX. Why? Too many people expect a repeat of last year. If the market goes down now, it will reward all the put buyers. We know they are a losing bunch...
There is no such thing as buy and hold, the next 10 years will be flat to down, any returns you can grab on a daily or weekly basis should be taken. In my opinion you will be able to buy stocks at s&p 1000 today and s&p 1000 5-10 years from now. Stocks arent going to zoom higher like they have for the next decade. There isnt any earnings growth at the time being, cost cutting and laying off employees to meet your bottom line will only sustain itself for a few quarters after that growth has to come from somewhere and I highly doubt the consumer is going to come back and spend like they did just 2 years ago. All the talking heads saying the bottom is in and that the recession is over will be completely wrong, this is a bear market rally. Back down the markets will go in due time.
Is this the same Liz Ann Sonders who in early 2001 when questioned about her long in BRCD at approx $118 (which was horribly under water) answered 'we're long term investors'?