Mass psychology and speculation are not the only factors, but they are the most IMPORTANT factors to price movement. Take Rimm today. Do you honestly believe apple will take that big of a bite out of strong blackberry sales? That was total specualtion and mass psychology today. We will see what happens tomorrow.
Well, here's the bottom line, as I see it. Obviously no one knows for sure, but I'm going to stick my neck out and say that I think we're going to have a pretty good stock year barring natural disasters. I think Nasdaq is overdue to outperform, and that's what it's going to do this year. Nasdaq isn't even 1/2 of it's high. While that 5000 high came from a tech bubble, the tech industry in the last 7 years has been year over year increasing sales, innovating, and selling... yet valuations are still 1/2 of those bubble years from buyers fears. Given that last year, the S&P and DOW both hit new highs, it's not unreasonable to expect Nasdaq to finally begin to catch up. I still think it will be a bumpy year, but what's new about that. There's what I think in a nutshell. As for the rest of the indices, I don't think they have as much potential for explosive growth, they'll bounce around, but I don't see them finishing 2007 down either. Right now, I have no clue what the market's going to do, there's just too many mixed signals (and no, I don't think the signal is for a 2000 style bad year). As I said, I'm still waiting for a solid correction... which may not come for months. If it doesn't, I'll enter before the correction and cover my bets. No biggie. What exactly are you guys saying? I mean the nuts and bolts of it? You think the market's due for negative gains this year? I mean be specific.