There is no doubting that the Commercials and Pros who do the in-depth research have an advantage of good information. Yet from time to time we see on the COT that Specs are overwhelming and often win. Isn't it our job as minnows to just go along with whoever is winning? If you've ever seen live a pilot fish hitching a ride on a shark, you would know exactly the imagery I have when I put on a trade. That said, as a TA based trader, news/data is always overwhelming, so I steer clear of anything that is going to be thus affected. Edit: To be clear, Pros who are on the same side as Commercials are classified as Specs anyway, it's just that specs can be on either side of the trade and sometimes wrong despite all the research.
I would be "this guy" in your post JackRab And you are correct. If you are new too trading, I suggest you don't try what I am simply displaying at YM MAGIC. I am far from new to this my friend. Furthermore, I had a less than average week. I would tell you I usually go 6 to 8 weeks without a losing trade. But that would probably sound so improbable and unrealistic to you. So stick around and follow me for a few weeks. I will make you eat those words. Or maybe you won't. But I would gladly make an open wager with you about my performance. Please stay tuned. Make a liar out of me.
The bottom line in this game is the bottom line. As an individual trader, don't get caught up in all the commentary of others. I don't care who they are. Focus on the product/market you are trading. Marry it! Get to know what makes it smile, cry, run, or shy away. The market isn't just math and mathematical equations. People make trades. Fear and greed are always present. Stay abreast of everything that affects your market. Most importantly, never risk more than you are willing too lose. Doesn't mean you wish to lose it. But you would not cripple your account and psyche, by losing it. This will remove a great deal of fear. Entry and exit is crucial. I had a friend, a retired trader. And he said to me "a trade has to look promising enough to bring him out of retirement before he places it. Don't trade just to be in a trade. Be confident about all your trades. If you were not, why did you take it.
I agree that the transaction and tax might be crucial. My friend spent spent 20 years in stock market to pay roughly 500K for brokerage and tax. In average, $100 per day and 24K per year. Stock market is basically zero-sum. During the entire life, many trader spend 50 years. First, limit the max cost when one start trading (50 years from 30 to 80)