As we start this new week of our collective attempt to improve our results (about 13 points last week as posted at least, without variation to the exits or sizing algorithm) over the self-evident near-breakeven coin tosser, we can draw self-evident (not necessarily without a great deal of thought), conclusions number 10, and number 9 below: Conclusion 9: It doesnât matter who you THINK you are. It doesnât matter what you have or have not achieved in the past. It doesnât matter what your formal instruction is or isnât. It doesnât matter if you can put a rolex watch in your wrist or not. It doesnât matter if you have previously made millions or billions in whatever enterprise (or dare I say, trading in the markets?) in the past. It doesnât matter how many simulations (or realtime tests on a smaller scale) of methods you have made to convince yourself and others that you have an edge. It doesnât matter if your wife loves you or not, etc, etc, etc. It doesnât matter what the past was or wasnât, the self-evident truth is that whenever you sit in front of a live trading screen you are fully capable of blowing up that account in a few clicks, and that you will have to exercise an enormous amount of self control to bring about a positive result trading the markets, because each new moment is unique, and no matter how similar to the past it seems to you, the universal FACT remains that no one, and I mean NO ONE, can step into the same market twice, not even once, because the market has changed and you have changed from the last time you engaged, and therefore one universal truth remains, that is if you wish to be a winner: âYou will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.â This brings about Conclusion 10 as a corollary which is: Everybody comes into âtradingâ with the idea to become rich by trading, because quite frankly the charts of the diverse financial instruments look to the newcomer (and to the not so new comer and goer), like an unlimited bounty from which, ever increasing riches flow to the winners of the game, if only one could exploit even a small portion of those moves that can so clearly be spotted in hindsight. After many hours, days, months, years, and sometimes decades, it starts to dawn upon the ânewcomerâ that perhaps all those moves, that so clearly can be spotted in hindsight, cannot be exploited so easily after all. The anecdotal evidence is of course the trading results achieved versus what was really available in hindsight. After a longer while of this first insight, the ânewcomerâ begins to ask harder questions like: Would the chart look the same after this or that âhindsight entry pointâ if I had sold 1 contract there?. What about if I had sold ten, a hundred, a thousand, ten thousand, or one hundred thousand contracts?. Maybe with increased size I would have affected the market and the market would have affected me in such way that even the chart would have looked different?. And from this reasoning process comes conclusion number 10: WHAT IS (i.e.: The price-time-volume path) could not have been possible (outcome) if what was had been any different from what it actually was at every point in the past before AND after you got involved. In other words: It's not what you do that matters most, and it's not what they do. It's both. This brutal truth (that is very easy to prove to yourself and others), is the cause of many grievances for the ânewcomerâ, as almost every weak setup he observes, and is sure of that works every time, till he decides to take it with real money, and then it fails to perform or performs much worse than what he observed. This truth also explains the exponential increase in bragging in public forums in days that sport a big move versus range bound days where the bragging, although always present, is more contained: If all these pathological braggers had actually been âin the moveâ, the move would not have happened most likely. This week, (as the few of us that are persistent assholes intent of winning at whatever cost), we will concentrate on finishing points from friday: 1 (money management, simulation of winning method to the borderline of losing with a winning method by overleveraging or degradation of edge by increased size due to liquidity issues) and 2 (Price-Time-Volume-DOM-whatever following to generate coin tosses with an edge, and subsequent management of position size to achieve/retain that edge (Exits, Sizing using Garch-Bayes as suggested by whoisjohngalt)), and we will continue gathering and from now on mainly ignoring (except when a useful point can be made) self-elected perpetual LOSERS for processing next Happy Friday. There seems to be an unlimited crop of those at Elite Trader (and in the markets). But we already knew that, as each of us is a potential loser in the making that everyday, and forever from now on and till death eventually comes to be: âWill have to prove to ourselves and others (family, friends, landlord, bill collector, etc, etc, etc) that our suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules.â If no one else can come up with an optimal F coin tosser simulator for a 40%W 4:1 winning method by the end of the week, Iâll post a simple one in EXCEL for all to use, using the free liquidity hunting method (and much lower theoretical edge than 40% 4:1) gifted by Mike805, with very hard rules, and suitable for automation (which as we already know does not guarantee success due to the universal truth contained in Conclusion 10), and close the thread for âlack of interestâ. Letâs see if the small portion of winners/ persistent wannabe winners (me included) can ignore the stupid LOSER trolls for virtual genocidal processing till next Happy Friday.
Your timing device seems to have a 100 year lag. Please consult with our long term trading resident expert (DOUCHE) for help regarding that topic. This is an ES coin tossing thread focused on becoming a winner. i.e.: Something that is 95% probably outside of your league. If I ever need to buy or sell a rolex timing device I promise I will look for your stops.
so you're destroying the original idea by considering some mystical approach based on pseudo-statistical metrics that at best will end up netting exactly the same as the original method? <b>impressive</b> and to add an extra layer of crap topping, you're going to use a mumbo jumbo size management formula to "retain the edge"? <b>hilarious</b> so why dont you trade the ema cross and forget the whole original concept? do you really think there is any difference between them?
It may be mystical and mumbo jumbo to you. Maybe it is not to others?. Or maybe it is?. It seems to be very precise for whoisjohngalt. If you wish to trade the ema cross and post testable rules and results, then knock yourself out. I'm not going to do it. Thanks for the impressive and hilarious comment. Most people that know me in person, have the same opinion. You must be very good at reading people, and then crashing and burning. But then of course, that is a coin toss. You do seem to suffer from bipolar (manic-depressive) disorder. That condition could very well be turned into an asset (in my anecdotal experience), as the market displays the same tendencies. Maybe one day you will :"Become one with the market".
i enjoyed your thread very much but then became irritated when saw you taking a different course of action than i thought to be the best for the experience, just that. however, i still appreciate your idea and praise your initiative, which has merits especially considering how ET works i apologize if i offended you earlier, that was not my intention.
If you think a better course of action exists (like my favorite: improving the coin, i.e.: a better entry and/or EXIT and/or SIZING algo based on objective market conditions), then by all means speak out. Changing the bum for another RNG has already been discussed and suggested by CFD. And increasing the frequency to more than 1 coin toss per day has also been discussed. You did not offend me in any way, that I'm aware of, or did you?.
i'll speak out then i said this earlier, the only way to improve the coin toss is using a biased coin, say 52/48 and decrease the frequency of trading to say once per week. this would yield a closer to BE expectancy, as the slippage and comms will become increasingly thin due to the limited no of trades. at the same time, the increased trading window allows for more room of possible outcomes, which is what we need as the strategy is repeated hundreds of times. e.g. we want the prices to visit most of the levels anticipated by market participants. to capitalize on this, we well analyze what the IV is for the front month options and will use a PT and SL that will mimic the range predicted by the IV but with a subtle tweak that will help revert the expectancy. we will use a PT a bit wider than 1SD, i.e. 1.1SD while the SL will be at 1SD. this has a great impact in expectancy, as in the vast majority of occasions (if not all), when the price touches 1SD also visits surrounding neighbors. so, in conclusion, we well end up with a formal stochastic process that uses the consensual volatility for the time frame with a minor extension towards the PT and will also benefit from a close to 52% winners due to the biased coin. the fact we reduce the amount of trades to one per week assures we are not eating up all (or some of) the eventual profits generated by strategy due to comms and slippage or being sucked out by low vola days that add to the slippage and comms bill while not delivering a true statistical outcome as expected and desired. <b>the usage of the IV range to determine where the exits are for the time period alone does constitute some sort of pseudo-edge which coupled with the biased coin and the tweaked PT/SL ratio really reshapes the expected outcome.</b> just try it out with real index data over a large sample of data and let me know whether this is true or not.
You lost by not accepting the 10k challenge, now everybody knows that you are a hopeless paper trader & a liar. Facts speak louder than words.
The ignorant russian runs his mouth again. *** Is it true that people are beaten and robbed for their designer jeans in Russia? ... because the Russian clothes are something you would see on an Amish farm? :eek:
There is a school of thought regarding the importance of money/position management vs. signal entry; to whit, it is more important what a trader does with a position once he's in it than whether he's long or short per se. Personally, I'd rather use a mechanical trading system entry signal with a statistical edge and then use sound money/position management skills to exit the position than using a random coin toss for the entry signal. Bottom line: good money/position management cures many ills and faults. Some traders believe it can make up for shortfalls with the entry signal effectiveness.