Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by Whisky, Oct 16, 2009.

  1. Whisky

    Whisky

    Alternatives

    The Mersenne Twister algorithm has received some criticism in the computer science field, notably by George Marsaglia. These critics claim that while it is good at generating random numbers, it is not very elegant and is overly complex to implement. Marsaglia has provided several examples of random number generators that are less complex yet which he claims provide significantly larger periods. For example, a simple complementary multiply-with-carry generator can have a period 1033000 times as long, be significantly faster, and maintain better or equal randomness.[5][6]
     
    #481     Oct 22, 2009
  2. sosueme

    sosueme

    exactly and that is why a coin toss on the sun rising tomorrow is a 50/50 call over 4T events.

    did you know that the sun never rises, but the earth merely rotates.

    little wonder that ES trading confuses most people, they still cling to the belief that the earth is flat.

    sosueme
     
    #482     Oct 22, 2009
  3. The daily occuring "settlement" is significant.

    It is not a precise time since it is a cummulative activity of the full range of the financial industry.

    Smart money trades all the time and smart money definitely takes into account the bias introduced by settlement conditions, circumstances and situations.

    Most traders have to deal with how any day unfolds. Market pace and volatility play an important role in the ATS look up tables.

    Three major facets of trading are always at play: market status; market signals and the combination and weights of sentiment on all the statistical significant market fractals.

    Anyone reading frequent and skilled traders can recognize the consideration given to these facets when examples are provided. For example there is another thread running now on TA evaluation as presented in various research papers and paper reviews of TA. Some posted themes evolve around prediction and others have taken prediction out of the TA picture.

    In this thread, the status of markets has not even appeared in the picture in terms of dialogue. One very important aspect of market operating points is how changing from one operating point to another is processed scientifically.

    I doubt if many observers and/or analysts are able to consider shifts in operating points and what the trading ramifications are. To come to understand that the market does not jump around takes a lot of reasoning. To finally be able to conclude that all choices but the inevitable choice have been successively eliminated as time passes is rarely understood. You can easily determine if a poster is even in the ball park or if he is operating on the basis of insisting upon having a predicting orientation.

    There is little chance that any thread on any topic can get very far when threads are mostly dominated by lack of any awareness of these three facets.
     
    #483     Oct 22, 2009
  4. Whisky, I guess one can always find a counter argument, and that's fine.

    As far as running robust enough and fast simulations, MT is by and large a RNG of choice. Plus it's largely available.

    Btw the scientist you refer to apparently has yet to prove that his RNG is indeed way better and faster.

    Plus, let's see if you can find concrete information on how to code it, use it, etc... :)
     
    #484     Oct 22, 2009
  5. Whisky

    Whisky

    I agree. They are both probably as good as a coin toss. But I don't intend to prove it.

    In fact it seems the cry babies that insulted me first (first blood) are going to get away with banning me from the site by running to the site owner like what they are, as they can't take what they dish out. So probably my posts are numbered. I wish to thank the few that actually participated. I'm now just waiting for my execution on my limit order to GTFO here. It's now a coin toss that I will stay or go. :D

    So be it. It is what it is.
     
    #485     Oct 22, 2009
  6. u21c3f6

    u21c3f6

    I hope you are not serious. As far as I am concerned, this has been one of the most thought-provoking threads on this forum and I thank you for starting it.

    Joe.
     
    #486     Oct 22, 2009
  7. sosueme

    sosueme

    Speaking of the Flat Earth Society.

    Did you know that the man behind debunking “the earth is flat” theory was Guillermo Jerez, a sherry maker from Andalucia, southwest Spain.

    The sherry business was bad in the late fifteenth century and he persuaded the El Rey (the King) to commission an Italian from Rapallo to sail west and prove that the world was indeed round.

    The rest is history and El Rey soon became the wealthiest man on the planet.
    But what was the inspiration for Guillermo’s actions you may well ask.


    Well until Columbus’s epic adventure, sherry was always taken at 6pm every evening in small glasses befitting a midget.
    After Columbus it was always 6pm somewhere on the planet at any given local time and sherry become the world’s first “sports drink” to be consumed morning, noon and night.

    Guillermo’s business was saved, he married the prettiest girl in the village and lived happily ever after.

    sosueme
     
    #487     Oct 22, 2009
  8. wutang

    wutang


    Noooooooooooooooooooo:eek:

    I feel like this is the one of the only threads I've read on ET that has taught me anything of value. Noobs need this thread. Don't stop.
     
    #488     Oct 22, 2009
  9. Coming from a loser like you who doesn't understand price action and can't trade, I'll take it as a compliment. :p
     
    #489     Oct 22, 2009
  10. You should be banned... but the fact that you haven't been only shows that ET has "jumped the shark."
     
    #490     Oct 22, 2009