I never made that statement. Please accept/correct your mistake/lie. That was probably the DOUCHE iirc. You can ask the DOUCHE. The DOUCHE is, after all, our resident expert in extremely long term trading, and buy and hold.
hard to say really as the number of actual traders here is so small that the margin of error is too great to be sure of anything. Now the inverse of this statement is an entirely different kettle of fish. sosueme
I imagine what we can all learn is that a coin toss is a 50/50 outcome dependent upon sample size. You have confirmed this is true when applied to a 4 trillion sample event. Now the next step is to see if we can reduce the sample size slightly. If we cannot downsize and still maintain the integrity of the 50/50 outcome, the 4T becomes set in stone as the game size. See how this thread is gaining traction and yet we are nowhere near 4T posts. sosueme
Since you're a mod, maybe you should learn how to make it clear in your posts where someone else's comments end and yours start... and maybe you could even learn how to do it in a way that would carry your quotes forward when one replies to your posts. But then again, clarity doesn't seem to be your strong suit.
Shorter time frame in my opinion may not work because the shorter the time frame, the likelihood of your stop or exit get hit by noise increase. Within noise, prices are distributed in a Gaussian way. Assuming a 1+ reward/risk ratio, the probability of winning will decrease. Outcome will be breakeven at best. For a longer time frame, a trader can take advantage of the fat-tailed distribution and catch meaningful move. In addition, scaling-in strategy could be used for winning trades to further take advantage of the fat-tail and enhance the reward/risk ratio. PA
Maybe my mind is lying to me, but yesterday's move in the late afternoon, for example, looks pretty much like a fat tail move compared with the rest of the day. Do you agree? Maybe some people have mastered trading within what you call noise?. I have heard of at least one trader that claims that, and I believe him. Given that I'm perceived by most as an skeptical/cynical psychopath, it's a fact (short-term fat tails) worth considering, even for me (or especially for me).
cfd: Do you have a link to post on the RNG quoted in your chart?. I would like to fire the bum tossing the coins (or promote him to CEO. We'll toss a coin for that decision.), and maybe others would like to do that as well.
I fail to appreciate the logic in this post upon the basis of a coin toss. All this highlights is that differing circumstances require different inputs, which is the art of trading ES. ie which part of the session are you in. sosueme
I believe him as well. The coin toss should work. In term of time frame, anything less than a day would be short term for a "trader" like myself. So, the move happened yesterday was indeed a meaningful move and that, in hindsight, it was a perfect set up for a coin toss strategy. PA