I have heard of people hitting right 70% of the time and making 2:1 and 3:1 on the payoffs. I also know of one that hits right 15-20 in a row with different payoffs ranking from breakeven up to 20:1 or more sometimes. I haven't checked their account statements to be sure, but I tend to believe them due to their lifestyle and integrity in the past. Gifted individuals, to be sure. I'd say that 50-50 and 2:1 or a combination yielding about the same edge before commissions would be comfortable for me.
Fancy that. I cannot imagine anyone hoisting figures like that on the ET crowd. They are too shrewd to accept anything other than audited accounts. It seems to me that scaling in/out and sideways along with money management (half in/half out) etc etc is the consensus of the crowd here. Wish I was clever enough to understand it all. sosueme
Makes perfect sense. If only Wiskey was intelligent enough/not such a douche he could have explained that 47 pages ago.
10-20-09 05:18 PM Quote from AyeYo: Explain it. What law of nature says it HAS to even out? The heads/tails of a fair coin will eventually even out. Where's the statistical rule that says your given win/loss AMOUNTS have to also even out? I can toss a coin to predict whether the sun will rise tomorrow. The toss results will even out, does that automatically mean I'm going to be right 50% of the time? It doesn't have to even out. Over a large number of samples the expectation converges to a loss equal to commissions and slippage. If you don't understand the mathematical proof, I can suggest you make a Montecarlo test and see it converge in front of your eyes. Every outcome is 50-50 that's all the coin does. The payoff is positive or negative whatever amount. The expectation is 0. And then you substract commissions and slippage. Maybe someone else can explain it better?.
Just came back from the hospital and decided to check out the old ET. I haven't been around for a half year or more. When I found this post I realized that nothing has changed at ALL! The old ET is still debating the coin tossing games in a childish manner. I happened to be a fan of the "Random Walk/ Coin Tossingâ methods of trading and always encourage people to look at them closely. I can assure you that there is a very reliable and a very profitable method of trading the ES using the Coin Tossing Game. I use it every day. We are running robots based on this algorithm. The challenge, of course, is to figure it out. I did. MAESTRO
Maestro! Finally, a sound thinker has arrived. Hope you are doing well, and the board has sorely missed your sage insights! Look forward to hearing more from you and glad to hear you are doing well.