Really?. Can you GUARANTEE that if you go into a casino that has a roulette without zeros and the payoff for red and black are the same as a real casino, and you bet on red all night, you will definitely 100% sure GUARANTEED that you will come out breakeven? What if you bet more or less with each roll?. Any guarantees?. LMAZO
Are you suggesting my coin is lognormal or the bum is lognormal?. That would be abnormal. In any case: "You will have to prove to yourself and others that your suggestions bring in at least 1 tic per day on average extra profit over the original method rules."
Yea, I get that. You're saying break-even MINUS costs, I get that. I left off the minus costs to simplify and save myself typing. You're saying it's break-even before costs? Prove it.
That doesn't address the question. The underlying win/loss amount is variable by (for all practical purposes) an infinite amount. Show me how you can claim the system is break-even before costs. All you're showing is that there's a 50/50 chance of losing or gaining EACH SPECIFIC AMOUNT. Show me how, when added all together, the sum of ALL the amounts comes out to 0. That is what's required for the system to be break-even before costs. Listen, I get what you're trying to do and the thread concept is great. But if you're going to be a dick to people trying to offer suggestions, I figured someone should at least point out that your basic premise is flawed.
which is more likely: i) Tomorrow, the SPX will close at 2 times its present value ii) Tomorrow, the SPX will close at 0
Hey All! my first post here, after countless hours of reading, enjoying, learning, and laughing at times. In answer to Mike's post below: at first look at the numbers an obvious "YES" comes to mind. Wayyy to obvious. On second thoughts, and that's probably what you were aiming at, the answer is actually NO. Why? The answer lies in this simple question: how many runs of this strategy over the same set of historical data did it take to get this neat Net Profit? Busted!