Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by Whisky, Oct 16, 2009.

  1. Whisky

    Whisky

    You could throw heads or tails any day and blow your account in the next 5 minutes. What then?.
     
    #311     Oct 20, 2009
  2. Whisky

    Whisky

    I did.

    Let's see if someone else can make a proof that you like better. (I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you).
     
    #312     Oct 20, 2009
  3. Whisky

    Whisky

    If you started trading in 2007 it doesn't look so much long biased.
     
    #313     Oct 20, 2009
  4. AyeYo

    AyeYo

    See above post. Even when your coin toss sample size is large enough to hit 50/50, there's nothing guaranteeing you aren't winning on the small moves and losing on the big moves.

    I don't need to post a chart of the DOW for you, you know damn well it's biased long. How do you figure a 50/50 call method is break even in the long term when the underlying intrument is constantly trending up?
     
    #314     Oct 20, 2009
  5. Whisky

    Whisky

    So first you want proof and now a guarantee?. Is that it?. Do you want a 19 year old big titted blonde that gives good head as well?.
     
    #315     Oct 20, 2009
  6. AyeYo

    AyeYo

    And if you started trading this morning it looks short biased. What's your point?

    If your coin toss method only works... when it works... then what's the point?
     
    #316     Oct 20, 2009
  7. AyeYo

    AyeYo

    Depends if you're able to arrange that.


    I said I wanted proof, show me proof. Wiki commutitive property didn't say anything.
     
    #317     Oct 20, 2009
  8. Whisky

    Whisky

    Exactly!. It beats 95% of traders. That's the point.
     
    #318     Oct 20, 2009
  9. AyeYo

    AyeYo

    Then it's NOT break-even?

    Let me ask you straight up, and, yes, "proof" means "guarantee" - is it absolutely break-even? Can you prove that it's break-even?

    Beating 95% of traders means nothing because you haven't PROVED that 95% are losers (since you're all about calling for proof). Again, you're implying break-even but you have not PROVED break-even.

    The coin toss is break-even over time, it comes out 50/50, we all get that. I want to know how you're assuming that your win and loss amounts will also remain equal in a long biased market, or even just with a variable win/loss size system (not a fixed bet amount).
     
    #319     Oct 20, 2009
  10. Whisky

    Whisky

    EV of first toss: 0.5 X - 0.5 X -costs
    EV of second toss: 0.5 Y - 0.5 Y-costs
    ...
    EV of Nth toss: 0.5 N - 0.5 N-costs

    Sum of EV: 0 - sum of costs

    X, Y, ..., N are what you call the size of wins and losses.

    That's the best I can do. Good night.

    p.s.: EV is "Expected value".
     
    #320     Oct 20, 2009