Wrong on 3 levels. No Forbes 400 for me, and as far as I know my mentor, but he has the potential, and no one trades my capital but me. 3 out of 3 wrong in one sentence. The rest will have to wait for the translator, I'm afraid. I can't wait for your 66%-100% proof. I'll take the "greediest and most selfish" comment as a compliment. Thank you very much. I'm probably the greediest bastard west of Rothschild, without the money. But my personal attributes or lacks are not the topic of this thread, and quite irrelevant except maybe for me. As I have made no claims except gifting coin daily to a bum for flipping coins, I feel I have nothing to prove... You on the contrary... Pardon my bluntness, but some reality is plain blunt.
The 8 year old game proof of winning 2 out of three times using deduction. In Geometry people learn to do proofs using deduction. This proof will be familar in format because of this. What are the givens? 1. It is possible to nest fractals. 2. To correctly nest fractals, completed patterns are the criteria. 3. Three patterns is the required number of patterns which must be used to retain a fractal relationship. 4. From any arbitrary chart containing bars of price and volume, the whole set of nested fractals can be determined geometrically by using the concept of parallel lines. 5. the definition of parallel lines follows from: 5a. Any two points determine a striaght line. 5b. Geometric construction can be used to construct and prove that only ONE parallel line can be drawn through any other point not on the first line. Many people will not be able to reason through why the above items provide a complete basis for deductively building the paradigm part of price. Now I add the volume geometry. 1. volume has peaks 2. volume has troughs. 3. the relative criteria for using volume extremes comes from the hypothesis set and the parametric measure of the hypothesis set of the paradigm Here is the hypothesis set: If volume is increasing, then trending of price will continue. If volume is decreasing, then trending of price will change. Neatly, the parametric measure becomes a time rate of change measure. Volume is measured by increasing or decreasing and price trends result as continuing or changing. A graphic provides a picture of the definitions above. The picture has several distinct price points the names are pt 1, BO, pt 2, pt 3, and FTT(also pt 1 of next pattern). Correspondingly, there are volume values for each price point. P, T, P, T and P. P is peak and T is trough. One detail will help: BO is where price crosses the prior RTL composed of the pt 1 and pt 3 of the prior set of parallel lines. FTT marks the end of the trending and simultaneously the beginning of the new trending. Since FTT is after point 3 and moving to "continue the trend" on increasing volume, FTT is always btween the parallel lines. The neat scientific and deductive thing is that the price movement at FTT ends BEFORE the LTL is reached. The 8 year old is flipping @ BO and pt 3 which are each volume troughs. She also does some trading actions called exit, then enter which is a reversal trade. Now to return to the proof. There are several corrolaries which can be handled as the need arises. A corrolary is an additional outcome, deductively, from the body of deductive proofs that have been accomplished. Posting them as an appendix would be handy since they complete the entire coding requrement. here are the steps: 1. Use nested fractals that are defined by the pattern above where a correspondence of P points and V points is defined. 2. Let the parallelograms having points 1 and 3 on the left AND a non negative slope be called "long" patterns. conversely, let the parallelograms having points 1 and 3 on the left AND a non positive slope be called "short" patterns. NB: here you see lateral patterns have a sentiment characterisitcs. One point for the gipper. 3. Patterns overlap by virtue of the FTT (being a point 1 also) is "inside" a pattern. 4. To form the next slower fractal pattern, use consecutive FTT's of the next faster pattern to form a pattern's parallelogram. 5. Conclusion 3 next faster parallelograms are required. 6. Begin with the smallest representation of price an volume allowable asdetermined by the market operating rules. (this is the tick application) 7. Build all slower subsequent fractals rom the fastest fractal possible. 8. Conclusion: a consistent set of nested fractalsmay be build to afford certainty at all times as to the answer to the following three questions: 1. Where is the market at any time, in terms of the order of events defined by the parallelogram pattern? 2. What is next in the traded pattern? 3. How fast are the point to point events occuring in the pattern? QED. So here are the new 8 year old trading rules. 1. Use the 5 minute bar chart to trade ES. 2. Determine the sentiment by constructing the RTL of the traded patern on the 5 minute chart. 3. Reverse with sentiment reversals on the order of the following events FTT, P; PT 2, P: PT 3, T: and FTT, P. NB: Use the first version of coin flipping to Determine troughs; use the converse of the trough determination to determine peaks. All 12 seconds into a 5 min bar, using PRV. 4. ADD contracts by using 100% of profits. 5. At first doubling remove inital capital and only trade on profits thereafter. As a way of progressing at the backtester and forward tester rate of progress, I will add corrolaries as a result of answering Q's. Pragmatically speaking, this kindd of deductively based trading uses three fractals (see three charts approach of redneck) all annotated on the same graph. More pragmatically, since the YM leads the ES we use a faster fractal YM to get leading signals for FTT, PT 1: BO: PT 2 and PT 3. There are some neat corrolaries. Use clean page 2 for getting cases; use clean page 4 for getting chart regions (zones). Some people will say you can't trade point 1 until you have sentiment after point 3. what these people say is true for them; they can't. But others are very able to. the difference between those that can't and those that can is simple. If you think, you can. The BE, DO , HAVE is how a person goes from can't to can. In this thread, we see that people could not figure out three patterns make the next slower trend. They could not see that two patterns are of one sentiment and the other is the opposite sentiment. In the coin flipping the little girl flipped twice a pattern. 6 flips of which four gave a net profit simply because of the dominant movement of price being the beginning of each trade. when you do this, do all of the trades and always reverse as the sentiment of the pattern reverses. Once an 8 year old person catches on to the fact that a reversal of trend begins on the FTT; then they also know only a retrace begins on the RTL @ pt 3. It is great to be a trader who instantaneously knows at the beginning the difference between a retrace and a reversal. So to trade a given fractal you can chose the one to use. In the boot camp we started slow and worked up about three fractals. Buying a color printer was helpful because trendlines are drawn according to their sentiment colors. What I like knowing is that all this has been backtested to death. detractors do a lot of the backtesting. So do Forbes 400 people. What do they do next? the detractors do not post results. The Forbes 400 people call on the phone and camp out at local destination resorts. Why don't we work at Forbes 400 outfits or for Forbes 400 people? Those people work full time. Sometimes they work after hours. Mostly they say we have to travel to Europe and Asia a lot ot tolk to their clients. When I went to live in Switzerland in the 60's they followed me there. When you guys all got the job offers from the Forbes 400, did they seem like nice people? They don't go sailing suring the week. They don't ski on tuesdays when the fresh powder id just covering the weekend hard pack. I never saw any of these guys at gliderports. They don't cruise to antarctica. Those guy are at work flipping coins all the time and doing binomial theorem stuff where it DOES NOT APPLY. If I had breakfast at the Links Club in NYC w/ Pete Peterson and John his bro, it wasn't to do coin flipping. Here is the way it goes for you. The Pool Extraction Paradigm (PEP) is inductive; it flies in the face of Forbes 400 thinking and CW. you have made soo many CW choices your mind is past growing through differentiated learning. You are going to use the betting paradigm come hell or high water. I was trained in Science and English (technical writing). My up coming five books on this stuff aren't even going to be sold. I will give them away to people who can use then as references. Even when I knock this down to 8 year old geometry just using a parallelogram; it fogs your glasses too much to even get your mind to consider what 10,000's of others are doing and have for 4 generations. None of the Forbes 400 types can consider not continuing to make money via fees and commissions as they screw up the handling of large pools of money. Go to some of the banking clubs and the broker clubs and listen to the chat. Long ago you could sit there and have lunch and watch steel workers put up taller buildings all around the club dining rooms. It is c+ Ivy League History major chit chat.
Hey Whisky, Here ya' go. Simple random entry strategy with 2 simple conditions added (closed and opend are daily close and open respectively). Profitable over the last 8 years on the ES. No slippage and commissions of course... This one is setup to trade at 1250 and 1255 PST, but you can change it if you like. I don't really trade past 1255pm PST so those times work for me. Mike
Literally took about 30 seconds. I remember playing around with these concepts many years ago. Got bored though. Anyhow, don't tell TraderZones or Bwolinsky as they'll try to sell this system on C2 Edit: Actually if you assume $30/round trip in transaction costs (12.5 x 2 for slippage and 5 for commiss) then we get 962 trades *$30 = $28.8k in slippage and commissions. The system is net profitable by $44.8k-$28.8k = $15.9k.
You are right. Proves that my focus is completely gone from trying to trade short term. Nice job. One tic at a time.
In item 2 above I screwed up. replace left with right. THe pt 1 and 3 determine the RTL and it has to be on the right and can't be on the left. Sorry.
Trading the around the Margin shift bar is cool. A lot of hope centers on not having the IB shut down the trade in a loss position. then the margin shift comes along. Since there are always more losers than winners getting shut down (or driven to reduced margin when upside down.) due to lack of overnite margin, the play is always cool.