Reality based coin-tosser method that beats 95% of traders in the world.

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by Whisky, Oct 16, 2009.

  1. Whisky

    Whisky

    This method is a losing method, but very small loser on average on the long term.

    It trades ES only.

    It makes only 1 trade per day.

    It trades everyday.

    It outperforms 95% of all traders.

    It can be improved.

    METHOD:

    Everyday at 16:00 EST I go out of the office, give a coin to a beggar in the street with the condition that he has to toss it hard in the ground, and then he can pick it up and keep it.

    If the coin comes out heads, method goes LONG ES at 16:15, if the coin comes out tails, method goes short at 16:15.

    The standard exit is on the next trading day close at 16:15 (unless coin comes up in the same direction, which allows for saving some commissions by matching the exit with the next entry).

    The METHOD embraces a 1 full day risk, which is, in theory, open ended on the short side, and very large on the long side.

    The intention of this thread is to improve logically from this, by definition, 50-50 minus commissions LOSING METHOD.

    Yesterday coin toss: TAILS. Short at 1090.

    Please discuss, flame, whatever you like. All crap is allowed in this thread. No holds barred. Fire away!.
     
  2. Toss the homeless guy, steal his "pee jug".
     
  3. Whisky

    Whisky

    And then what?. Hire a Stanford MBA to "trade" the method?. Suboptimal. Original method outperforms your suggested "improvement". The homeless coin tosser is the cheapest labor I could find. I'm not allowed to toss the coin.

    The method has to work without me being actively involved. That's a new rule I just made up.
     
  4. What if the homeless tosser decides to do a runner with the coin before acting on your instruction fearing a trick is being played on him - Variables?
     
  5. Whisky

    Whisky

    He doesn't have legs. I give the coin always to the same beggar. He's always looking out for me. KISS.

    Today I will introduce the beggar to a trainee trader that wants to do all the work in exchange for instruction. That will free some of my time, and remove me completely from the process.
     
  6. OK, what if he swallowed it after drinking a bottle of meths?

    I know i would.
     


  7. very good system but have you tried to toss the coin yourself? i am concerned with the amount of coins that you'll give away over time
     
  8. Whisky

    Whisky

    I avoid junkies as employees as a rule. Add it to the list.
     
  9. It has to be done with a homeless guy to rule out emotional bias. KISS.
     
  10. Whisky

    Whisky

    I tried to elliminate the coin tossing by programming a random number generator, but in the process I found out that it was impossible to generate a truly random number. The "random" path can be cracked, if someone gains access to the seed and the RNG algo.

    I don't like anyone to front-run my orders because it makes the method more of a loser.

    You guys are going to have to try harder to improve upon this small losing method.
     
    #10     Oct 16, 2009