UPDATE 1/12/2007 - san diego Pre-foreclosures: 1714 Auction: 334 Bank owned: 1153 ------------------------------------- 1/28/2007 - san diego Pre-foreclosures: 1555 Auction: 408 Bank owned: 1323 -------------------------------------- 3/5/2007 Pre-foreclosures: 1282 Auction: 473 Bank owned: 1718 BANK OWNED homes keep going up as more pre-foreclosures throw in the towel Thats a 49% increase in bank owned homes since the end of january :eek:
Bye Bye, is more like it. Not my first rodeo. It always end w/ the Cowboys. By Real Estate. Ain't makin' no more of it. Then, the guy telling you he flips homes. How well he's done. The bank owning more homes than the developers. Always the same. The variable is, how long it takes to break, and how foolish you look until you look brilliant. There is no middle ground. Stupid - Brilliant. Overnight. Last night was the night.
I can show you at least 4 foreclosures that hit the market in the past 7 days in Carlsbad area that are already in escrow. Carmel Valley is one of the most stable markets in the continental US at present. I would submit that Olivenhain (submarket of Encinitas 92024) is quite possibly the hottest market in the continental US at present. There are a few submarkets that are not feeling the real estate contraction at all, some feeling it slightly, and some falling apart at the seams. I track NOD's and Foreclosures daily and weekly and in the county of San Diego, 90% of the problems are in the Chula Vista area and the 92056 and 92057 zipcodes of Oceanside. Riverside is in shambles. The people who normally rent and did the ridiculous zero down stated income fantasy loan are getting their asses handed to them for getting sucked into the foolishness. They are now renters again with banks holding their bag. Back in the early 90's there were foreclosures sitting for months and even years before they got scooped. The prime homes in the prime locations within SD County are stable. I could type much more but don't have the time. I will say that the easy money and foolishness went deeper than just the landscapers buying $800K houses. I've seen people who bought for $46K in the mid 70's refinance their lives away and go into foreclosure. Very sad indeed. This time IS different insasmuch as normally conservative older folks got sucked into the bubble vortex. It's gonna be flatline to down for at least 5 more years before this whole thing shakes out. The gap between the haves and the have nots is pretty remarkable right now.
all bull markets are remarkably similar yet, people still have disbelief it can happen (which is why it does) we have had a massive housing bubble. it's no different than 1929 and 1987 in stocks, or centuries ago in dutch tulips i have had (idiots) tell me you can't lose in real estate . they aren't saying that any more CNBC interviewed vegas strippers who were real estate spec's about a year ago read the writing on the wall people are WAY WAY overleveraged in real estate. negative amort loans, etc. most stock traders understand the downside to leverage. most home investors don't buy a home for 400k. put 50k down. you owe 350k on a 400k home. house goes up 20%, you went from a 50k equity stake to a 150k stake. 300%!!!! but the downside they forget. 400k home is now worth 300k 33% drop your equity is now NEGATIVE you owe 350k on the frigging house worth 300 you just lost 100k and that's not even counting transaction costs, excise taxes, real estate fees, property taxes while you hold it, etc. real estate much more illiquid than stocks and real estatemarket is GLUTTED with homes. supply is in control we have had a greater %age of home ownership PER CAPITA than at any time in recorded history. many of these people MASSIVELY overleveraged and undercapitalizad do the math a chart of the real estate index is literally a mirror image of the tech stock crash and the 1929 crash put them next to each other on the same scale. plus ca change btw, i live in seattle. just sold one of my houses for a nice profit. now, my only house is the one i live in. i would love a nice big bear market here (still bullish here) to sell my primary res and move into a bigger house at fire sale prices buy when people hate it, and sell when they love it.
In 2008 the capital gains tax rate goes as low as it's gonna, so I've been expecting the bottoming out to be 2008 because of 2008's capital-gains-rate-driven selling pressure from the "Haves" on top of the interest-rate-driven selling pressure from the "Have nots". I would not expect to see the return of an uptrend before 2009.
prolly true but remember everybody gets that 1 time 250 k cap gains write off and MANY of the homes hitting the market are first homes, so cap gains irrelevant (unless more than 250k or 500k per couple)
Agree mostly. Your market (seattle) has been pretty resilient. Still, one cannot take the media bullsh*t numbers and apply them across the board for all real estate markets. Look and aapl, bidu and crox (after hours) today...you get my drift... still...I am not totally sold on the fact that the deterioration will not spread to the healthier locations. The real estate market is like a huge supertanker, it takes a while for the thing to turn...forward, backward, and sideways. The titanic still sunk but some people survived. I like the way you think man. Cheers
Tnueb, While your plan is very good in writing, actually, have you seen the backlog of homes for sale on the market? You don't make your $40k until you sell your home... Its going to take you 3-4 months. The only homes being quickly sold are the ones below value, foreclosured (the one you got) , everything else priced at normal price will take forever to sell!!! Sure you got a property, you fixed up, invested (that was the easy part) The hard part is selling the damn thing. Good luck!