Mini crash at of today around 15% so far. First, the Jan 08 employment report rebuked that 'employment was holding up nicely'...For 2007 89% of employment was based on births and deaths model calc. http://www.financialsense.com/economy/northern/bangalore/2008/0104.html And come 2008 this births and deaths must be adjusted downwards to reduce its influence in the numbers otherwise the BLS is not reflecting reality. This will happen. Not good with the third reason below. Second, erroneous inflation numbers from USA http://www.shadowstats.com/ Third, Housing, Debt and democrat scare ! So the spin of that all was ok, finally cracked on the Jan employment report, and eggheads around the world realise that USA unemployment is to rise and quickly. THE REAL CRASH will be after the re inflation of the economy does not work.. ak Japan example. Lower interest rates, tax rebates etc if these fail, deflation will be the winner. SP500 below lows 2002 by year end... if re inflation does not work...as DEFLATION is the cycle and this will be 1930's again.