Real Forex Trades

I think you need some serious, serious help and I hope you get it quick. You must have had a really bad day in the market today to be making an issue out of a totally non-issue. Silly.

 

thx for your concerns but I am doin' just fine.

no q. u have an agenda here.

 

Bit,

Here is some of your double talking handiwork on this forum. This just a tiny sample of what you do here all dayd long and how you talk out of both sides of your mouth:

You should learn to take your own medicine before dishing it out, Bit. Because, you are now right here in my trade journal doing the exact same thing that you accused others of doing in another thread. You have no "education" about what I'm doing here and no "sensibility" about what I'm doing here - no "nothin", using your own words. Yet, you just jumped in and instead of educating yourself on what I was doing by asking intellgent questions about things you don't fully understand yet, you "could not resist the need to participate in humiliating" yourself. The advice you gave to others is the advice you should take to heart yourself.

You have no idea who or what you are dealing with here, do you?

You know I went back and did a little research on “Bitstream” and guess what I found? A Mother Hen – lol. You actually think that you are helping people here with your nonsequitur rants, don’t you? You actually think that you are doing somebody some favors, here – don’t you? You actually think that you know me in some “online way”, don’t you?

Let me clue you into something little guy: You don’t know me from Adam, or the horse he road in on. Do you understand that? You don’t know me, the work that I put into my career as a Trader, you don’t know the trading technology that I’ve created, you don’t know the sacrifices that I’ve had to make to get where I am today in this business and you darn sure don’t know what I do in the markets each and ever single day. All you know, is that you “think” you know me, or what I’m doing. Fact is – you don’t know Jack, or Adam, or any horse that either one them road in on. All you know is what falls under Bitstreams realm of experience.

It took me a while to read your posts and get a good grip on where you are coming from, but I can see (and so can anyone that does the homework) that you don’t know much about the Forex, at all. You think the Forex is a rigged game. Let me tell you something little guy, I left the Stock Market trading Equity Options because the dynamic structure (and I realize how big a phrase that is for you) of the Forex is far superior to anything I’ve researched and studied in the combined North American Stock Markets.

Now, if “ya” knew anything about data analysis and “structured data”, you would have also discovered this in your research. Now, here's just a handful of things that separates you from me:

1) I don’t use once single ounce of conventional TA – you do.
2) I built a 100% non-conventional TA trading technology from scratch – you have not.
3) I engage the market every single day of the week without fail and hit my targets currently 94.12% of the time on average – you don’t.
4) I trade a total of 15 Institutional Trading Accounts via custom designed Client Side API direct to Interbank – you don’t.
5) I don’t not trade Retail Trading Accounts – you do.
6) Today, my account balances are well into the 8 figures in total between 15 Institutional Accounts – yours are not.
7) This year alone, I am already up 2,725.13% net/net gain on equity - you are not.
8) I grow my capital on a non-linear basis – you don’t.

I trade on a level that you can’t even comprehend right now. I don’t trade like you – I don’t think like you – I don’t behave like you – I don’t carry myself like you and I darn sure don’t jump into anybody’s trade journal staring miscellaneous, mindless crap like you. I am one of the most efficient and effective traders you will ever have the opportunity to meet online. I’m not here for you – I’m not hear to appease you – I’m not here to qualify for you because you don’t rank (according to what I seen you post on this forum) among those with the authority backed by a Trade Journal of your own, to criticize one single iota of what I do in my trade journal.

So, I suggest that you go back to being the Mother Hen for those who actually need your hand holding, because I am not your novice trader looking for a clue, here. Got that?

I’m the one designing the technology that makes your 30 year old conventional TA 100% moot and obsolete for a myriad of technical reasons that would not understand even if I handed them to you on a silver platter - which I am not about to do with someone as arrogant as yourself. So, why don’t you and the rest of your band of jumping to conclusion rebels go back to Stock Options and talk about trading and leave the heavy lifting for real traders who actually do nothing but post trade journals demonstrating their ability to actually grow capital.

Maybe you thought I was one of these wet behind the ear junior traders with no real world experience. I not only have the real world experience starting with Stock Options, but I’ve also got the real world experience of researching, designing, engineering, developing and authoring a new technical language that accurately describes market behavior in ways that make your 30 year old TA stand up and take notice.

So, go sell novice protective Mother Hen some place else – I’ve been there and done that YEARS ago. While you are at it, learn how to read: There is nothing for sale, not now, not ever – nor has there ever been anything for sale. Repeating a lie, won’t make it come true no matter how many times you continually repeat that lie.

Now, go attach yourself to trashing somebody else’s Trade Journal, because you’ve clearly met your match here, and a galaxy more than that to boot. We are NOT in the same Trading League - not even remotely close. Unless you wish to come in here and put up your own Forex trades, then leave mine alone because I will smoke you six different ways from Sunday and twelve different ways from Christmas if you EVER step into the Forex ring with me.

Got it? Good. Now, may I proceed? Or, do you seriously want to debate trading the Forex with someone like me – because I wrote the damn book on trading the Forex – got it?

Good.

 

Second and First Day Trade Notes for 3/20/06 to 3/21/06:

This is supposed to be a trade journal not a pre-school playground for childish off-topic rants, so I would expect the adults of the forum remain, and the children, leave. Recess of over - back to trading.
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Got a bit side-tracked by the Benspeak event today, though the direction vector coming from his words matches the current price behavior, so at least there were no accounted for price events to content with. I'm still waiting for a nice pull into the vertical, but that could come much later in the trading session given the side-track of Ben inlayed into this session from the start. Keep in mind that “my” Opening “bell” is at 7pm Eastern (I’ve stated a few times now for super clarity), which means that my systems rolls its daily bar over to the next day at 7pm Eastern each day. Yours may vary, depending on which FX intermediary you use – not all roll over at the same time.

So, If I can still get the 2175 Entry, I’ll take it, but if get above my 2161 Open with continual failures to take out the 2175 level, then I will use that as my entry Short for this trade. If that happens, also note that this trade will more than likely convert into the Swing Trade profile and I’ll most likely hold it for the remainder of the week or until the Swing Limit is struck – which ever comes first – or simply close the week with whatever net pips are on the table at time under the Swing profile.

So, from this point forward, my goal is pretty simple: obtain a re-entry point between the 2161 and 2175 level this session and convert trade into Swing Mode relying on the system’s 96.69% probability on the Swing Trade profile to pick up some good pips for the remainder of the week. Going into this week, there was lots of long side bias built into the EURUSD, much of that energy has been bled off at this stage.

The Ben thing threw a wrench in the routine Day Trade profiles, but that’s what new does sometimes and that’s why I don’t trade news. Maybe I’ll update this journal tomorrow sometime, I’m a bit weary of the experience here for today. I won't be responding to any more childish rants.

A couple of you have already asked intelligent questions and you got answers quickly. Those are the types of posts that will be responded to going forward without exception.

 

I have some *serious* questions. Appreciate if you answer them.

Are the trading criteria for each of your profiles different? What time frames did you use to develop each of them? For example, daily for position trades, hourly for swing trades, etc.

How much historical data did you use to test your system (or each of the profiles if they are different)?

Do you periodically re-optimize your system?

You mentioned you wrote a book on Forex. What book is that?

 

Seem that you have gone to sleep. So here are some more questions so you can answer them all in one go:

How many variables/criteria does your system have? Forget it if it is a secret.

Does your system always generate at least one trade signal at the beginning of the trading period for each profile? I would be really impressed if it can generate a signal every day and be correct up to 94% for more than one year :eek:

 

Yes – very different in some respects and similar in others. They all use the same core primary indicators, which means the mathematical constructs for each of the decision support indicators and signals are pretty much the same. The daily, swing and position trades use daily data, weekly data and monthly data respectively – all being piped in from a custom built real-time database which is fed through a live DDE feed 24/7 excluding holidays and weekends for the most part. The system is actually composed of several Engine concepts with three primary Engines that produce signals and one Metadata Engine that handles most of the decision support logic.

So, four engines in total with a higher-level engine (servlet, if you will) that handles the really high-level meta dialog between signal clusters across all engine types. The big differences, however, reside in the actual logical wrappers (algorithms) that “glue” the primary engines to what I call the MetaBrain. That is where the real “dialogic” processes take place and where the system’s components are dynamically filtered in real-time to produce a single Trade Signal for each profile along with its associated numeric probability indicator. So, what I see on screen in the GUI is a graphical signal indicator and numeric probability indicator for each signal/trade profile working together in a synergy to produce decision trade support.

So, the “criteria” is established with lower level core mathematical constructs that generate lower level indicators which are grouped into three (3) distinct modules for Timing, Direction and Magnitude. Those modules are then sequenced and filtered to produce a middle layer of intput/output signals which are used to form middle level signal clusters that are then further grouped and filtered into higher level meta signal clusters.

The higher level signal clusters are then weighted and used in synergy to form the MetaBrain. The MB delivers its output to the GUI. The system “thinks” its way through decisions before it makes them. It remember what it did and how it did it – why it did it and when it did it and under what circumstances it did it – so that it can attempt to repeat it again within a range of “acceptable” flanking market conditions that arise in the market every single day. That’s it in a very small nutshell. The system is now in its 5th generation of code. Five prototype generations spanning about 6 years worth of research, development and testing.

I don’t use hourly data in my system but I do know of somebody that does use hourly data to drive the basic system that I gave to him years ago. He is a very smart guy and solid trader and one that is now turning to trading full time after selling a another business that took up too much of his time. He’s taken what I gave him years ago, added some of his own tweaks and now has a unique system based on the core concepts that I used to show people years ago. So, though I do not use hourly data, the same concepts work on the smaller time-intervals as well as my friend has proven very well.

The system’s back-testing and accuracy ranking period is a 280 period sample for each type of bar used in the system. I don’t need that many, but due to some design issues, the 280 number remained the standard for this system. However, given the repeatability and reliability of the primary mathematical constructs/patterns used in this system, I could get away with far less in terms of back-tests. Over the years, the oldest components in the system have well over several thousand samples of a combination of test trades and live trades – so the further back you go down the development life cycle of the system, the stronger the components get.

Still, even the newest component in the system has at least 560 back tests associated with it. The system has seen just about every trading scenario that the Forex could throw at it – vertical markets, horizontal markets, lateral markets, hyper extended trending markets, compression markets, break-out markets, low volatility markets, high volatility markets, end of year markets, terrorist markets, bombing Baghdad markets, robust global economic markets, slow global economic markets and fundamentally messed up markets where no pricing pattern comes to the naked eye whatsoever. You name the market and this system has probably seen it, recorded it and mapped it right down to its last genotype.

That’s probably one of the most telling distinctions between what this system is all about and what conventional TA is all about. This system is what I call: Self Healing. It is “intelligent” – it “thinks”. It needs no manual periodic tuning as it self-tunes. It ebbs and flows with the market while still retaining its ability to project slight ahead of where the market’s high probability for movement resides next.

The data resident within the market itself allows this to happen automatically, without any need for my assistance. Now, I can tweak the system’s sensitivity anytime I want. The system is constantly making a decision to either go with the Trend, or go against the Trend. So, it is constantly balancing the Trending inputs against the Predictive inputs and resolving in real-time what the current Trade and Target status look like and it makes the determination on what both Day Trade profiles will look like by 7pm Eastern.

Where I come from, that is an expression that means: One knows very well what one is doing.

However, a book deal is still in the offing should I decide to write it – I’ve got backing for it (a green light whenever I’m ready). But, that has become a project that will be at least several years down the road as I will have too many other projects coming online very shortly that need my undivided attention.

Hope this answers your questions.

 

Simply impossibel! Do you have a chart of this year's equity curve?


What leverage is used when trading these four systems (with 15 accounts, why?)?


To save my time, I'd better sign off this thread now. Bye!

 

Thousands in total but on more than one input/output level. Example: the first primary indicator has 30 seperate inputs (variants) alone and that is just one of many primary indicators and that is just at the lower level - not including the middle or upper tiers.

Yes. Minimum of one Day Trade signal and maximum of two. One Swing per week and one Position per month. However, the Position signal could extend for up to 5 months. Example: the current Position signal that you see in the profiles here has been pointing Long since the EURUSD was at the $1.1700 level back in late 2005. It changed one time to Short near the $1.2300 level this year, but has been Long ever since then. Right now, it is pointing to a 3 to 7 month price level between the 2300 and 2591 price levels.

I'm very happy with it and have zero complaints. The only thing that is sometimes a little quirky about it is that it can get a little bit more than 24 hours out in front of the Day Trade. I like to be in and out of dodge within 24 hours routinely, I don’t like having to sit around waiting for price breaks like this one.

If you note in one of my earlier posts, I said that I was Short from last week, Friday. That target on last Friday was $1.2123. Today’s low thus far is now $1.2121. Uncanny sometimes, but also fairly routine for this system. However, it took ultimately 48 hours – or two trading sessions to get there. So, sometimes, depending on the counter-trend (meaning the system’s signal is called against the trend) – if the counter-trend was very strong (as it was last week) it may take a while a couple of days until the system’s projected target comes into better focus – like this week.

I exited, because I have a habit of taking pips after 48 hours regardless – it’s a personal thing – I like to see pips booked as quickly as possible. I also knew that the price needed to release upward slightly today, before heading back down, but Benspeak put monkey wrench into those plans. So, now the market is in this premature Short – this was not supposed to happen this early in the session – so the timing is now off for this session making entry into the trade far less than optimal. I may just wait until the next trading session if I don’t get my entry range.

No matter how good the system gets – it cannot overcome the force of new – period. I know of no technical based system that can. If you run across one, please let me know!

 

Impossible for you, maybe. But, why are your limitations automatically my limitations? You obviously don’t know the answer the question or you would not seem so surprised. Obviously, this is “extraordinary” for you. An education of Revenue Model Trading might help.

Here’s tip number one: Stop thinking like everybody else and step outside of your own comfort zone.
Here’s tip number two: Build/Design and trade against a Revenue Model and not for simple cash on cash returns.

I use a Revenue Model that is linked directly to the system’s trading accuracy/capability. So, the Revenue Model is very much tied to what the system does on a routine basis – therefore, I know the Model is consistent with the reality of the system. The Revenue Model stipulates:

1) Beginning Balance
2) Fixed Cost Basis Per Trade
3) Average % Net Gain Per Trade
4) Average Net Pip Gain Per Trade
5) Average Leverage Per Trade
6) Percent Reinvestment Per Trade
7) Percent Withdrawal Per Trade
8) Per Pip Value
9) Lot Size Per Trade
10) Account Balance after Previous Trade
11) Total Time to Revenue Target
12) Net % Gain after #11

Don’t run and hide behind irrelevant nonsequiturs that don’t make any sense and then claim you’ve got to leave the thread. Why make one of these drive by shooting posts when you offer no compensating argument on the other side with mathematics or at the very lest your own explanation of why what I do is impossible? You can say it is impossible all day long, but where is YOUR proof that it is?

Please articulate for us what the “equity curve” has to do with attaining the stated net gain on capital, please? Here’s the Model:

1) Use any staring balance you want
2) 40%
3) 40%
4) 20
5) 200:1 (on average – I have some accounts that are lower and some higher)
6) 90%
7) 10%
8) PPV (will be determined by #1 above)
9) LS (will be determined by # 1 above)
10) Bal (will be determined by #1 above)
11) 3.0 Months or less, or approximately 60 trading days total
12) 2,725.13%

There you go – she’s all yours! Don’t alter or change the Model in any way shape or form.

Does your #12 match mine? If it does not, you’ve got math problems.

BTW – it is a whole lot easier to sit on the sidelines and conduct drive by shootings in threads, then it is to actually engage me on this stuff, isn’t it? I challenge you to use this Model and come up with a different Net % Gain Total within a reasonable margin, of course.

Lastly, if you don't know why having more than one account is necessary after seeing this Revenue Model, then I really won't be able to help you. It would be too much work for me to explain it. It should be clear and obvious why having multiple accounts is absolutely necessary when trading at these Lot levels. You will have to do some research into what it takes to start trading institutional accounts and why simple "retail" accounts won't work at these levels.

If all you've ever done was retail level trading - then this is all going to seem somewhat unfamiliar to you. I can do what I do, because the system's accuracy allows me the freedom to explore regions of trading that most find "too aggressive" or "too risky".

Risk is a function of several things - trading accuracy, is one of the big components to risk. I don't share the same views on risk as most do, because I can trade at much higher than average levels of accuracy and I can do it, consistently. So, what is risky to one, might not be risky to me. The inverse could also true.