Yes. I have dead-lines on revenue generation. So, I need to net as much cash as possible with this system and the Forex. That's my "hurry".
By whom - you? Or, is this the insight that comes from someone with the trading experience of 8000+ posts? Because, at 8,000+ posts and spending that much time in trading forums, I would expect every word of what you say to come true. BTW - you are free to start your own trade journal and demonstrate some trading ability. Just a thought. I know trading can be a difficult task to do well over long periods of time and even more difficult to do exceptionally well over any period of time. Most people are looking for answers to questions, while others are hear to help those looking for honest answers - while others are here to simply demonstrate what they have - sort of like a car show, or an airshow. If youâve ever been to a Red Bull Air Race (http://www.redbullairrace.com), as just one of many examples, then you will note that there are spectators and race pilots. You will also note that the vast majority at the race/show fit into the spectator category. Iâm not a spectator â not in this business, or in the business or air racing.
Observations and Trade Profile Updates: At this point, the system I use has moved the stop (shown below) and the limit order (shown below) for the First Day Trade. The high probability for a move up to the 2194 level (as I posted yesterday) did transpire up to 2198. Sometimes, the system will set-up two (2) Day Trades as you can see from the profile structure below: The First Day Trade followed by the Second Day Trade. That is what the âhigh probabilityâ Long move from 2176 up to 2194 was all about last night. So, why did I not trade it? That is simple â I entered a manual override into the system that suppressed the signal for the move up to 2194. Why did I do that? As the pilot of this trading system, I want ultimate control over every trading decision regardless of what the system says. So, I built override capability into the system to allow me to suppress certain aspects of the system â or â to allow me to augment or boost certain aspect of the system, depending on external inputs that the system cannot detect. So, in this instance, I was willing to accept the high probability 22 pip draw down on this trade as it fit nicely under my maximum 40 pip dynamic draw down protocol. My hunch was wrong and the system was right. I could have net 18 pips on a First Day Trade to 2194 with the Short Entry being at 2195 instead of 2176, had I not entered the override into to system that suppressed the move to 2194. Given that this was the very first trading day for this week AND because the Swing Trade is Short and âActiveâ, I decided to error/override on the side of caution and not allow the first move to be Long at the first trading day of the week. But, as usual, this system is typically precise to within a few pips. As indicated yesterday, the 10 and 15 minute volatility has been high and the trade continues on as prescribed pretty much on par with expectations thus far. Because this is the first trading day of the week and the Swing Trade for this week is Short â and â the Day Trade for this session is also Short, I may decide to convert this trade into the Swing profile (below). I will now more about that before the end of this session depending on what the system indicates. My daily sessions start at 7pm Eastern time every day â so there are more than 12 hours remaining before I make that decision. (Profile updates below) 24hrs - From 3/19/06 to 3/20/06: First Day Trade Short Entry 2176 Limit 2133 Stop 2219 Active 24hrs - From 3/19/06 to 3/20/06: Second Day Trade None Entry Limit Stop Inactive 120hrs â From 3/19/06 to 3/24/06: Swing Short Entry 2176 Limit 1977 Stop 2251 Active 480hrs â From 3/1/06 to 3/30/06: Position Long Entry 1931 Limit 2379 Stop 1856 Closed (already closed for 254 pips at 2185)
Yes - I now - good point. For most conventional traders, there are a lot of things that I do that are not understood, or misunderstood. Trading without charts was the best move I've ever made. I still have customized charts but they look nothing like what you might be familiar with. I love it, because I don't suffer from the emotional chart effect that often times drums up too much emotion. The biggest difference is that I trade on what "needs to happen next", as opposed to "what has already happened". Most people in this business are reactionary traders. They are reacting to what has already happened. At the core, that is called âtrend tradingâ. I donât trade trends; I trade the components that make up the trend. I go inside the trend and see where it is going, before it gets there, which is why I am typically hours to days ahead of the rest of the market depending on which trade profile Iâm using at the time. Iâm always out in front of the market to some degree. Sometimes, way out in front â other times, just a few minutes out in front. It all depends on what my system tells me and where it places me. I donât trade where price âhas beenâ, I trade where price âneeds to go nextâ in order to continue being what it is. This is why traditional charts are of no use to me. So, in my trading world, I donât see how I could trade with charts. The exact inverse of what most do. All you have to do, is take a close look at all the trader that are now sitting on the sidelines with the EURUSD waiting for some âlevelâ to break. Iâve been Short since last week if the truth be told, but that is in another trade journal and I did not want to commingle to two here. The reason you see 10 minute and 15 minute volatility (as I projected yesterday) is because many are on the sidelines and some are testing the waters Short, while others are still attempting to âbuy bottomsâ. Eventually, those attempting to âbuy bottomsâ will jump in the Short train while those sitting on the sidelines waiting for a break of some âlevelâ, will re-enter the market Short. That is when you will see the price action become more linear. But, it is very important to be clear about what we mean when we say âtradeâ. A trade is what you make of it. It could be 3 minutes in duration or it could be 3 months in duration, or any time-frame in between. So, while my post in response to you is focused around the time-frames that I am interested in, those same comments might not apply to one with a longer or shorter time-frame for âtheir tradeâ. Much of what we do in this business is very subjective. I trade net a specific number of pips each 24 hour cycle. If I donât get those pips, I make a decision to either Hold and convert into a Swing profile, or liquidate my Day Trade and wait for the next 24 hr signal. No charts are ever used to make those decisions. I use a decision support application to generate all of my trade profiles â it looks similar to Windows application but it is rather unique and designed for a very specific task. There is a fair amount of technology that stands behind the trade profiles shown here. I see them on my screen in a GUI while you see them here typed on screen. There is a big difference between what Iâm looking at and what I can show you here in this journal. There are also other Graphical Indicators that I can see as well, that talk to me about the health, status and condition of any trade in real-time 24/7. There is quite a bit going on behind the scenes but Iâve posted pics of what the system looks like on other sites before, so some people do understand that no charts are involved in decision making. I use my custom charts only as visual tools for confirming moves, but thatâs about all they are good for.
I've been thinking about it. Made no decisions yet, but Iâm almost positive that Gold is in the future of this system. Forex and Gold will be all I ever need. But, I have not dumped any Gold data into the system to see what its stability would look like, but I can tell just from experience that I would really like the stability of the data â just by looking at some Daily Gold charts, I can pretty much tell just from that. The rest of the Gold story would be making sure that I could get good, reliable live data in the OHLC format for at least the daily bar and hopefully some weekly and monthly historical data that is easy to access. If not, I would have to create my own which is a pain in the neck, but Iâve done it before.
Manually, for now, but there will be a semi-automated toggle switch for news of various kinds down the road. I've gotten better at building toggle switches for various other things in this system, so all of that experience will go into building one for news. It is a highly complex thing and that is why it will mostly likely never get beyond the semi-automated level where I allow the system to make alterations to Stops, Limits and Entry points and then I will make the final decision as to whether or not I like it enough to trade it. Otherwise, I just try to stay away from news. However, the system by its very nature uses historical market data and therefore, much of the new variable is already built into the system by definition. So, many of the parameters that are used to set price points in the system, already include the historical impact that new had on the market. So, that lessons to some degree, the overall negative impact that adverse news has on the system - but not all of it. There are only two ways to effective deal with news, either develop/design/engineer an intelligent way to trade through it, or avoid it altogether. The problem is that some news that should be a negative for a certain instrument will often times positively move the price with the inverse also being true. Thatâs part of what makes trying to trade through news a complex task. It is typically not just news, it is ânews in contextâ that matters and new connected to other news. That is where things get really complex. Some of the biggest news for currency pairs is interest rate news â people rate chasers â thatâs what people do. So, you have to understand how news that has no direct impact on rates will somehow have an oblique impact on rates and whether or not that will be enough to move prices. Or, whether that news in conjunction with the news coming out of the counter or base currency country, will be enough to cancel price action and retain the market in a normative behavioral pattern. The whole new spectrum is very complex stuff and I can only go so far with a computer based model for effectively dealing with large scale price moving news. There is news out every single day that impacts prices of major currency pairs, but most of the time the vector on the news is nominal and transparent to normative market behavior. Every single day, you are trading through some kind of news â the question is: does this news move the market against my position sufficiently enough to warrant an adjustment in my trade? That is the constant 24/7 question that all traders must answer for themselves.
First Day Trade Update for 3/19/06 to 3/20/06: I've got about 4.75 hours left in my trading session for this first day trade of the week and from the looks of things, if it does not break now, then the break will come in the next session after a slight move back above the 2176 level. This is not coming from my system, but it does come from several years of trading this system and knowing a bit about it. So, while I won't have the next trade signal until 7pm Eastern, I do have a good idea (being the builder of the system) what to expect. Although, I must say, it has proven me wrong before be coming up with a signal the next session that I did not anticipate. So, my hunch is that the break will come during the next session (3/20/06 to 3/21/06) barring any adverse news. There are several key variables within the system that are in their Unlocking Phase from the Long side of last week and they are rather important to the overall direction of todayâs and tomorrowâs trade. So, while those variables are slowly unlocking themselves and rotating to the Short side, you will see the price action become more âlinearâ to the downside during some of these Day Trades this week. Essentially, Iâm just waiting for the âmarketâ to come to my direction, or catch-up with me. Like I said in a previous post, sometimes this system gets ahead of the market by a few minutes, to a couple hours to a day or two. Either way, eventually, the system will win. Right now, it is just a waiting game.