Real Forex Trades

RFT,

Did you mean 3/23/06 - 3/24/06 on your day trade?? Since it is 'active' I am assuming that its a typo....

 

Observations and Trade Profile Updates:

First Day Trade Stop moved by system. (update below) Will essentially wait for short-term channel to form. This looks like the first upper region move for the short-term channel off the Short move from 2082 down to 1951 to establish at 131 pip channel. I will expect a 30 pip variance from its top to its bottom as the basis for the short-term EURUSD channel before the larger break to the Long side sometime next week. Current real-time (live) draw down = 48 pips with a return to at least break-even being currently projected by the system at 82.13%.

Clearly, a 15 minute bar new spike worked against the trade moving south on a slow grind down to its low of 1951 for a 16 pip net positive gain on the trade. Three bars later, US Existing Home Sales date released at 6.91m over expectations of 6.5m, giving dollar bulls their signal to enter long and many Short EUR players an opportunity to do some profit taking on their short plays for the week. All fairly reasonable outcomes given the scenario currently at play.


24hrs - From 3/23/06 to 3/24/06:

First Day Trade

Short
Entry 1967
Limit 1929
Stop 2038
Active


24hrs - From 3/23/06 to 3/24/06:

Second Day Trade

Idle
Entry
Limit
Stop
Inactive


120hrs – From 3/19/06 to 3/24/06:

Swing

Short
Entry 2175
Limit 1966
Stop 2050
Closed: @ 1966 for 209 pips


480hrs – From 3/1/06 to 3/30/06:

Position

Long
Entry 1931
Limit 2378
Stop 1856
Closed (already closed for 254 pips at 2185)

 

hoangmphung,

I'll be getting to your questions shortly. Thanks!

 

Observations and Trade Profile Updates:

First Day Trade Closed on Stop. (update below)


24hrs - From 3/23/06 to 3/24/06:

First Day Trade

Short
Entry 1967
Limit 1929
Stop 2038
Closed: @ 2038 for -71 pips


24hrs - From 3/23/06 to 3/24/06:

Second Day Trade

Idle
Entry
Limit
Stop
Inactive


120hrs – From 3/19/06 to 3/24/06:

Swing

Short
Entry 2175
Limit 1966
Stop 2050
Closed: @ 1966 for 209 pips


480hrs – From 3/1/06 to 3/30/06:

Position

Long
Entry 1931
Limit 2378
Stop 1856
Closed (already closed for 254 pips at 2185)

 

Almost seems as though the news spike set off the 'spring trap' that was to be next weeks long move, so are we into that early?

RFT, correct me if I'm wrong it almost seems at times that price appears to 'want' to be in a particular place but forthcoming news holds it in current position until that news is released and then what I call the 'spring trap' gets set-off.

 

End of Week Summary Reporting for 3/19/06 to 3/24/06


Profiles

Day Trades: 3
Wins: 2
Losses: 1
Pip P/L: -56

Swing Trades: 1
Wins: 1
Losses: 0
Pip P/L: +209

Position Trades: 1
Wins: 1
Losses: 0
Pip P/L: +254

Current Trade Performance Since 3/1/06 to Present:

Current Number of Trades: 5
Current Wins: 4
Current Losses: 1
Current Pip P/L: +407


System Performance

Number of Day Trade in current performance period: 280
Number of Day Trades since last failure: 48
Total Number of Day Trade failures during current performance period: 8
Day Trade accuracy prior to last failure: 100%
Day Trade accuracy after last failure: 97.91%
Day Trade accuracy for current performance period: 97.14%
Day Trade back-to-back failure percentage: 0%


End of Week Notes

Can’t seem to breach this glass ceiling at 50 trades lately. The system has been further than that, but lately the 50 Day Trade region seems to be posing a very strong barrier. The important thing for me to note is the “cause” for the 50 trade barrier – cause: Unknown. I can’t figure it out. I’ve tried but failed to get to the source of the problem. She runs at near perfection either to the Limit target ore at least to break-even for a long stretch of time, but then out of nowhere, BOOM a loss. I’ve become so accustom to trading successfully that any failure regardless of how long it take to occur is always a wake-up call that building perpetual 100% successful trading systems is still a very difficult thing to accomplish. So, I’ll reset the counter, deposit another quarter into the machine and see if this time I can move through 50 Day Trades without a failure this time.

EURUSD End of Week Outlook

EURUSD setting up a very nice short-term channel going into next weeks trading activity. Channel parameters will be approximately 131 pips wide with variances ranging between 15 to 30 pips near the tops and bottoms of the channel. Channel will last until sometime near April 1st, 2006, whereupon at that time the EURUSD will begin to make its ascent for the month of April. Short term 10 min, 15 min and 1 hour bar volatility will be very high at times – OR – there will be periods of extreme price compression during the run up to April 1st, 2006. In either case, there will be an eventual increase in 10 min, 15 min and 1 hour bar volatility before the move higher. With this spike higher today, expect a bounce Short before the move higher begins near April 1st, 2006.

$1.2737 is system’s “current” 7 month very long range outlook. $1.2325 is system’s “current” long range 9 week outlook. $1.2208 to $1.1951 is the system’s “current” expanded short range channel with most of that action occurring within the center section of a 131 pip wide inner channel. Note that ALL brackets are “real-time” calculations and subject to change in “real-time”.

Expect sideways Day Trading going into the April 1st, 2006 break-out to the upside with a couple days margin of error on the actual break-out.

Next profile posting period: 3/26/06 through 3/31/06

 

I'm still getting to all questions that have been posted - have not forgot. Need to get ready for a golf tournament this weekend and a live chat session at EOD today – but I will be back to answer those questions. Cheers!

 

what's happening here ? From 30 posts a day to zero in the last three ?

 

Are you familiar with how the Forex Markets work relative to when markets are open, closed or rolled over to the next day or next week?

It has not been three tradings since the last profile. The last post relative to profiling was Friday EOD and EOW which is the way I've been posting profiles for the last several years.

I even went as far as posting an end of week summary. That would be a clue.

 

Journal Notes:

I'll be out this week taking care of other business. Will resume profiles next week. EOM (end of month) outlook posted earlier is in effect until start of month April 1st, 2006. Read outlook posted in the last EOW (end of week) summary report.