Real Forex Trades

loads of off-topic stuff it seems... why not just stick to the journal? nothing to be gained in these back & forths methinks...

 

Interesting journal - looking forward to updates. I dont trade forex currently, but would like to eventually get into it

 

I was referring to the fact u keep talkin' about how amazin' your skills are and how bad I am while u got nothin' to fall back on: I never said anythin' about your capabilities and your skills while u keep referrin' to my incompetence because I dare criticize your naivety of disclosin' stuff about your self to prove your arguments. u also blame me for talkin down your journal, offendin' me at every turn. again it's u who's openin' da door for criticisms.

all those who keep a journal here have an agenda. all you wrote so far does suggest u are no different. it is a give away from the hints u gave in your first post, the length of your replies and how defensive u get; that u are conscious about it or not though is a different matter all together.
I would never start a journal here, I don't crave neither want the attention of da all board. I am in chat durin' da session and talk 'bout my trades there; read the logs. I fell comfy in there because it's a close circle of people and part of the only few in da all site that trade for real.


I admit this has gone too far and take part of da blame for it.

adieu

 

Observations and Trade Profile Updates:

A bit more of a draw down than I normally like to see, but well within system specifications thus far. US Markets now opening and will take the lead from here on out and either break the European session high or low. The initiation of the First Day Trade against the Second Day Trade and Swing profiles, is what’s causing the traffic jam at the moment. I would have liked to have seen more price action at or above the open slightly, but realizing that the First Day Trade is in opposition to the Second and Swing, I do understand the “lag” effect.

As I type at 8:32am Eastern, there is a slight break above the EU session high. This will need to be sustained for a while, if both profiles (First and Second) for this session have a chance to work in harmony/synergy. So, at this point, its all an academic waiting game for me.

The Swing Trade has slightly increased its absolute value pip gain for the week with this session as well to 110 pips (absolute unrealized) for the week. Everything on par thus far for the week with the exception of this lagging First Day Trade for 3/21/06 to 3/22/06, but the very high Swing Trade Probability numbers sheds light on that for me as it is still running in the high 96+% range which is unusually high for a Wednesday, but I have seen higher. Typically, the Swing Trade Probability numbers start to taper down as the week progresses – this time they are tapering up slowly. It is very nice to see for the Swing Trade profile, but not when I’m in a First Day Trade opposition trade against it. Sort of a two edged sword, but well see whether or not this gets thrown into Recovery Mode to Break-Even, or whether or not the profiles can find a smooth synergy.

There is just about 10+ hours remaining in the trading session, so there plenty of time for the First Day Trade Limit to synergize with the Second Day Trade Entry. If there are any adjustments made by the system on these two price points, I’ll try to be around later today to post them as they develop. If not, I’ll post them when I have the time.

Current real-time draw down = 18 pips. Maximum allowable draw down = 50 pips. Current system Average draw down = 28 pips. Absolute Max draw down this session = 42 pips. A bit too close for my liking, but then again I’m so used to seeing much smaller draw downs that I tend to get little concerned whenever they get larger than the system Average.



24hrs - From 3/21/06 to 3/22/06:

First Day Trade

Long
Entry 2107
Limit 2122
Stop None (might enter manual stop later)
Active


24hrs - From 3/21/06 to 3/22/06:

Second Day Trade

Short
Entry 2123
Limit 2061
Stop 2166
Pending


120hrs – From 3/19/06 to 3/24/06:

Swing

Short
Entry 2175
Limit 1967
Stop 2185
Active


480hrs – From 3/1/06 to 3/30/06:

Position

Long
Entry 1931
Limit 2378
Stop 1856
Closed (already closed for 254 pips at 2185)

 

3/21/06 to 3/22/06 Notes:

Looks like European session high will be broken and sustained. Now, looking for an aggressive move on the First Day Trade target after somewhat of a "lagging” start given the high Swing Trade probability numbers. Also, checking news for any adverse conditions there as well.

Ideally, I would have liked to have seen the “first” move be made above the Open price line, so the apex of the move back down into the Second Day Trade profile could be mathematically smoother creating a nice shaped parabolic apex over the top. That is going to be very hard for the market to do from this “bottom up” approach into the First Day Trade target region. All this translates into First Day Trade lousy Timing – bottom line.

 

3/21/06 to 3/22/06 Notes:


Now, approaching BE. At this point, this is what is known to me as an "Inverted Profile". Quite simply, it means that the market has made an attempt to go after the "Second" Day Trade's target "before" the "First" Day Trade's target. Thus, inverted.

The rule is to take BE or collect the initial pips available on the “First” and manually move the Second Day Trade profile to "Inactive" status. Which is exactly what I will do.

This is one of the primary reasons why this system has such a low loss rate and such a high loss-recovery rate. It has less to do with the "strength" of the signals and more to do with the consistent use of trade rules and protocols for protecting equity - or what most traders call: Trade Management. (which of course, is not the same as Money Management)

 

Observations and Trade Profile Updates:

Exited First Day Trade on an Inverted profile for BE + 1 pip. Update below.

This trade could go on to make a million pips, I don’t care. I have to remain discipline to protocol at all times. No equity was lost and 1 pip was gained and in this business when you trade the number of lots that I do, even one pip can be worth something of value. (update below)

Waiting for next system update – 7pm Eastern.


24hrs - From 3/21/06 to 3/22/06:

First Day Trade

Long
Entry 2107
Limit Manual
Stop None
Closed: @ 2108 (BE + 1 pip) on Inverted Profile Rule


24hrs - From 3/21/06 to 3/22/06:

Second Day Trade

Short
Entry 2123
Limit 2061
Stop 2166
Inactive


120hrs – From 3/19/06 to 3/24/06:

Swing

Short
Entry 2175
Limit 1967
Stop 2185
Active


480hrs – From 3/1/06 to 3/30/06:

Position

Long
Entry 1931
Limit 2378
Stop 1856
Closed (already closed for 254 pips at 2185)

 

Wow, great exit. I don't even see 2108 on my chart.

 

I see it struck three (3) times at least on the 15 minute InterbankFX chart and several others in the same market. I also see 2065 at the low on the same 15 minute InterbankFx chart.

The FX Market is not yet fully "standardized", so one market data source could show high's and low's that are not equal. In some high volatility periods, I've seen different data sources as much as 9 pips away from each other.

It all depends on what data source you use and/or have access to. And, yes – it was a good exit on an inverted signal as my PPV on the aggregate trade was $8,000.00 per and the max aggregate draw for all of my trades was $336,000.00, which represented about 84% of the total cost basis in the aggregate. So, to walk away with deposit in the bank of 8 grand sure won’t turn me into Soros overnight, but it will add to the kitty, just a bit. That’s why I like to stick to the rules & protocols. At this level, one pip has meaning.

 

You're so awesome.