I live here in Southbeach, Miami. I used to be a realtor(7 yrs) here before becoming a trader. Yes..some ultra lux high rise projects are almost at a construction standstill bcuz they(developers) havent been able to presell enough condos to satisfy the banks. Even Donald Trump just backed out of his partnership with 2 local big hot shot developers on a 3 tower project they were doing In Aventura(N Miami Beach). Talk about a condo meltdown ! AI few friends of mine that are still realtors here in and near the beach say that some owners who bought one or more condos as investments are trying to sell them fast but the buyers are not biting cuz they know prices will fall even more. Not even the latin buyers are biting that much. BUT, the euro buyers have to be licking their chops at these prices with the the way the euro dominates the us dollar right now.
Another thing to consider: We're talking condos in South Florida. I own two homes in Boca Raton, and if I had to sell I could do it with a haircut but not a fire sale, to mix metaphors. Condos have other risks besides price; think of the underlying financials of some of these buildings, insurance risks, association dues and fees, your neighbors being flight capital from Nicaragua or someplace. When you're building becomes 40 percent vacant, who's gonna pick up the fees? People might pick up a steal and then watch their fees, dues and insurance costs skyrocket. Hurricanes, bad construction, all sorts of crap can hit condos. I recall vividly the co-op (an even worse animal) collapses in NYC in the late 80s and early 90s. I wouldn't by a "condo" at any price in Miami. Even with Euros! But a house. Own the land.
i still see cranes as far as the eye can see.....it is abosolutely amazing to see how many units are actually being built...i agree just on gut feeling i cant see these being bought up anytime soon....and ive been here since the 80's ....
I also I agree with this....and it is most definitely a good time to be shopping around for a condo or home down here to live in ( better than 2 years ago thats for sure)...but as an investment i dont see a money making opportunity anytime soon....i know of several condo flippers that are right about now puking their brains out ...talking about declaring bankruptcy holding 3-5 properties right now getting close to closing time and they are definitely worried...they might have to walk away...some unfortunately are upside down on their homes due to tapping into their equtiy at the top in order to put down the down payment on their flips....talk about a trap....these guys fell into quicksand...
Don't forget Winter Park... there's size on the bid down there. And count in Isleworth if you're willing to drive 40 minutes to downtown & like celebrities for neighbors. Pabst - Orlando is where you move to FROM miami. Don't kid yourself though - its soft here too. FWIW, I would imagine that Tampa sucks for young professionals since Ybor could turn even the hardest charging yuppie into a slacker.
i am hearing and feeling the same..and i aint no realtor...but i have plenty of friends who are in this web bigtime..and from talking to them i might puke as well
I like your rationale Pabst, but you may forget that in a real estate correction, the first thing to dump will be condo prices, since they have zero land value... I have a condo in N. Miami Beach...I didn't buy it for appreciation sake...I bought it so that I would have to pay 50K to install hurricane shutters...I was driving down Collins one morning, and stopped at an exceptionally long stop light, so I decided to count the number of cranes.....63!!!!!!! Before returning to some semblence of normalcy, Miami needs a bust, as it has already had it's boom..
50k for shutter....lol...I paid $1200.00 for mine....i walk on the key biscayne bridge for exercise and i count 20-30 cranes just in the brickell , downtown area...not to mention 4-5 humongous buildings that are definitely not filled to capacity....