ALL THE NUMBERS INDICATE THAT MANY OF THESE CONDOS WILL TRADE AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT DISCOUNTS FROM THEIR ORIGINAL LIST PRICE.......AND ONCE PURCHASED WILL NOT RISE IN VALUE FOR MANY YEARS . THE FACT IS THE MIAMI CONDO MARKET IS CRASHING RIGHT NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH FOR AT LEAST TWO YEARS.... ANY LEVERAGED MONEY THAT WENT IN TO THAT MARKET IS GONE VANISHED .THE CONDO MARKET IN MIAMI IS FOR NOW A BLACK HOLE IN THE FABRIC OF OUR ECONOMY PLEASE DISCUSS
As a long time resident of Miami (27 years)......you are absolutely correct. Unless we're talking about ocean front properties....there are so many damn condos in construction, I don't see how they are all gonna be sold! Especially considering that there will no longer be any more "liar" loans available.
Actually I see little evidence of SoFla real estate "collapsing." I paid special attention to the real estate sections of both the Herald and Sun-Sentinel this morning and it's the same story. Asking prices are sky high and anytime a property comes on the market at what seems like a "good" price, it sells immediately. Miami is not only easily absorbing these new condo's (mostly South American and Euro buyers) but you could build even more hi-rises and sell out. A few reasons. 1. Compared to the rest of the East Coast SoFla remains reasonably priced. It's not like someone who just sold a home in Newton Mass. or a condo on the Upper East Side is thinking, "wow! Is Florida expensive!! Instead they're thinking, wow, is this CHEAP!" 2. South American's in dollar terms are wealthier than ever and more apprehensive about the shifting political winds at home than ever. If you're a well off dude in Sao Paulo forking over $425k for a condo on Brickell is not only within budget, it's a hedge. 3. To Euro-trash buyers Miami is as cheap as Pittsburgh is to an American. 4. 229 people a day move into SoFla. 5. Due to no state income tax, the homestead exemption, superior weather and lifestyle amenities there's no shortage of transplants. Folk's with money aren't interested in living in Charlotte or Austin. They want fine dining, Neiman Marcus and a place conductive to spending money. 6. Miami is more likely to look like a huge South American city with hundreds of condo hi-rises than to "bust." 7. Conventional wisdom is bearish on Miami. That makes Pabst bullish........
Here in Philly we also saw a huge condo boom in the last 5 years or so. beautiful high rise buildings with great views and all the extras. BUT, Everytime I drive through the city I ask myself "who the hell is going to buy all these condo's?" Its not like the job market and income potential has changed that much in the city..
Orlando Sentinel today reports that condo construction is stopping because they cant afford to complete the buildings and even if they did they might not be any buyers.
Orlando's a hot, swampy hillbilly shithole. ET aside. I guess the guy in the Pluto suit at Disney World is tapped out....
you make good points. but, that doesn't mean prices can't drop considerably. case in point: the SF bay area. your arguments are the same as here, though, frankly, the bay area fits that cosmopolitan ideal much more than miami. we have much more limited appealing land. so, everyone argues prices can't go down. they said it in the late 80's and again in the mid 90's- each time, prices dropped greater than 30% from the top. of course, they eventually came back and went MUCH higher. long term, hasn't mattered (so far). still, i'd much rather be the guy who let the dust settle in an over-built area than the hero.