Real Estate.... the bottom is in!!

Discussion in 'Forex' started by marketsurfer, May 4, 2009.


    The Event:

    At 10:00 AM on Monday, May 4th, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases the Pending Home Sales figure.


    This monthly figure represents the change in the number of homes under a sales contract prior to the actual closing of the deal. It only includes existing homes and does not take into account new construction. It is considered a leading indicator and is forward looking as contracts are generally signed several weeks prior to the actual transfer of ownership (closing ). Consumer economic activity increases around the time they purchase a home due to the goods and services needed to prepare the house for their ownership. This increased activity spurs the economy, thereby lifting the currency.
    Trader Take:

    Real estate is a local market and there are pockets of highly improved activity across the United States. Interestingly, some of this activity is due to foreclosures and bank owned sales. However, it is clear that buyers are starting to test prices taking the plunge into home ownership as prices spiral downward into their comfort zone. The Pending Home Sales figure spiked higher during the last release, actually turning positive and surprising most forecasters. This release is forecast to be positive by .1% which will be a substantial drop from last month's 2.1%. I believe the analysts have it wrong again with the number coming in well above estimates, regardless of root cause. If this occurs expect a positive reaction in the US dollar.

    Currencies were relatively well bid against the USD and Yen heading into the US session of trade and have accelerated gains following the release of the much stronger than expected housing data. US pending home sales surged +3.2% on the month after analysts had been looking for a flat showing, while construction spending also impressed at +0.3% after consensus estimates centered on a 1.6% drop. This sent the commodity currencies, which were already outperforming on the day to fresh highs, with the Aussie leading the way to post 2009 highs by 0.7400. Usd/Cad also managed to just eke out yearly lows by 1.1760. Meanwhile the Euro broke back above figure resistance and well into the 1.3300’s while Cable flirted with 1.5000 barriers.
  3. Surfeur you are always a day late and a dollar short.

    I've been buying property for the last seven months in Texas and Nevada and California and my Commercial props in Arizona are performing well. And I posted here the whole time. I just didn't feel the need to start a new thread about it every time.

    Why do you do that? Is there something that you're trying compensate for? You don't miss the main-line do you?

  4. yes, the data is lagging, but fortunately the data should trigger additional buyers that can only help you and the others who anticipated the improvement. nice going, doctorZ!