imo, the smart money real estate exodus is beginning today, either through posit or liquid net, posting these large after-hours negotiated blocks. note the timeliness of these blocks: - at the 1 standard deviation of the year-to-date volume*price - after bullish technicals were rejected at the $70 trend-reversal-establishing retractment - these blocks make this the highest volume trading day YTD for IYR, both being negotioted via IOI intraday, and posted via private match, imo your thoughts?
1 yr chart http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/qu...avor=basic&origurl=/tools/quotes/intchart.asp Long time chart: http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/qu...avor=basic&origurl=/tools/quotes/intchart.asp ... many US Home Builders are at 50% of their all time highs. TOL HOV. A pause by the Fed may have saved them, but it is clear now the Fed is going to take them down hard in 2006.
agreed. real estate has hell to pay and will bear the brunt of inflation and debt consequences in the next 24 months... the next great bear market is real estate.
IYR is a broad REIT ETF. I do not think this is the best approach to short the REIT sector since the residential and some commercial reits have a good chance to benefit from the falling housing market through higher rents.
Short IYR/Long a basket of apartment reits might be a nice paired trade, or if your really think prices will fall: http://www.indexuniverse.com/index.php?section=7&id=1431