Dakota, Ahhh. Thanks for moving us forward here. You're right by me. I like sugar, corn, uranium, silver, copper, coal, oil and nat gas juniors, LNG, gold juniors, and most real things that could be considered a necessity or a currency hedge. I like the Swiss Franc. The Loonie should easily go to par w/ $. The US is exporting inflation thru a falling dollar. And in this way paying down our debt. RE value fall will help too. The debt must be paid. I've been writing this all along. We are in a real long bull run in commodities. China and India growing to super goods producer status in short time. All compressed in just a decade or so. At the same time our $ is falling. What a combo. You'd have to be blind to miss it. I've made a rather extensive database on the metals and am starting on energy and alt. energy. These sectors are full of startups. Got to be careful. Handle in size and then treat like a burning match. Would be nice to have a site to discuss this CRB bull trend. But no lurkers. I hate lazy people.
Bill, Sounds like you own commodities through equities--the database you mention. I too own stock in many of these, but would like to learn about more stable ways to invest in the long term trend. I've stayed away from futures trading, as high beta stock and stock options provide plenty of excitement for me. Any guidance for a commodities neophyte would be terrific.
Well Dakota, (hah I'm in Denver and can almost hear my own acquired western twang) I hate to say it, but I don't trust 2005 enough to invest in anything physical except maybe gold and silver. I've read Clinton sold most of the nation's stockpile of silver so there may be a shortage with lead going out per the EPA. Obviously, you can't store oil or sugar. And I'm not sure if all commodities will go up relative to the dollar going down. If I were in the right climate, I'd be interested in growing wild ginseng. It sells for a lot more than gold per oz. The Chinese love the big wild roots so much they often don't eat it, they pass it on as an inheritance. Once planted, it needs no care. Good question on physical. Not old coins or art for me. Market is too volatile. Best I can come up with is hedge against the dollar fall and a possible market slump, then reinvest in RE at the bottom. Maybe go long in T Bills if int. rates rise enough. 2005 is going to be a wild year. Interesting times.
Wisconsin climate. Wisconsin is the Chinese Ginseng capital of the world, believe it or not. Most revered quality.
Or you can grow it in Maine. My B-law has a 3 yr old crop started on his property of 200 acres. Only 3 acres to ginseng so far. The state of Maine gives him grants because they want to see wild ginseng come back into the economy. Oriental demand!! But watch your crop. Old Wild roots are worth thousands. If someone knows you are growing you need big time protection. Chinese seeds are really hard to get. He is growing our seeds, but wild. Cultured grown ginseng is just another crop. Not much demand compared to wild. Different look and taste. That's all I know about it.
just heard on k&c that the cme is going to start trading housing futures. sounds like you are going to be able to hedge yourself against a housing crash.
I have been following this thread with interest. Here is an excerpt from a new article I just read in the NY Times online addition, entitled "Dollar's Fall Tests Nerve of Asia's Central Bankers": "In contrast to Japan, China's money managers, while selling little of their existing Treasury holding, have not been buying much more. China's foreign currency reserves rose by $111.3 billion in the first three quarters of the year, according to official Chinese data. But its Treasury holdings, American filings show, climbed by only $16.4 billion. Instead, officials at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in Beijing have been seeking higher yields by plowing billions of dollars a month into bonds backed by mortgages on houses across the United States, according to bankers who help Beijing manage the money. By helping keep mortgage rates from rising, China has come to play an enormous and little-noticed role in sustaining the American housing boom. "
Alchemist, Could be. I don't often believe the NY Times or quotes from Bankers. However, China's peg to the dollar is making them tremendous amounts of money. If a little is invested here to keep consumers buying then it may be a good deal for them. I don't think they'd do it out of the goodness in their hearts. Just for US? Nah. I read China is going to introduce a silver currency.
Yeah, they aren't buying U.S. bonds for our own good. They are doing it to keep the game going: $/Yuan, exports to U.S, etc. etc. etc. It has been well reported that they, like Japan, were buying enormous amounts of Treasury securiities. I didn't know, however, that they were also buying (riskier) mortgage backed securities. It is just an incredibly interconnected situation going on with the dollar, our consumption practices, their need to export, our housing market, interest rates, and so on.