ma & pa kettle dont need the 3,000 sf casa anymore and its awful cold in MN, so they head for del webb community in southwest US. this is big demo trend - sure someone will buy the place in MN, but likely the appreciatoin (maybe loss in value) will be less than states benefitting from inmigration. also consider that areas of AZ and NV will have more stable economies as retirees get that monthly check.
Actually my sister did just that in the last year. She and my brother-in-law sold their very nice 4000 sq home in a Los Angeles suburb...very upscale but way too much room for them. They actually had rooms they never used they had closed off. They bought a 1600 sq home for all cash far out in the central California foothills for one third the price. My brother-in-law took a early retirement at 55 and putters around his garage doing stained glass hobby work and is remodeling the bathroom. My sister is finishing up her last couple of years of work and she will join him in early retirement. She works in health care and was able to transfer up to that area. No more slave to the large home, smaller utility bills, smaller tax bite, much less maintenance, and most of all less worry if one if them gets sick. Their new home is also a one story, rather than the two-story before, so when they get very old no problem getting around (they plan to stay the rest of their days in this one). So this would be still another California homeowner cashing in...not fueling the fire of speculation and bidding prices up. Had they chosen to move out of state they could have done even better. They probably could have bought a nice small clean home for one quarter or one fifth the price from the money they got for their McMansion in Los Angeles. Boomers will be scaling back plain and simple, selling their 600-800k coastal area homes and buying property like this for cash... http://www.realtor.com/Prop/1040310681 I see on the link the property taxes on this nice South Dakota home are around $2,000. I know someone here in my area in California that bought a home in the last few months that is dreading their taxes coming due....of over $16,000.00 a year! They live in a planned area that has some special taxes called Mello-Roos. Their rate is something like 2.2% of purchase price. They also have an 'interest only loan'! Gulp.
I am in NYC, but has a close friend in Houston, also visit her couple times! She told me that CA people are moving into Houston Metro quickly, also she informed me the real estate price there! The same money you can only buy a town house in Queens NYC, you can get a big, up scale house, and the townhouse over there is only 100,000. When I heard that, I was cursing in my mind, how the hell that place is so freaking cheap. So I understand why I people are keep moving to south, but being an Asian, I would probably move back to my country(sorry for bring the money out of this place), cause realty price over there is just about 50~80% of the price at Houston Metro, and the food and living expense is also just about 40~60% of here! To me, that sounds a better deal!
in Socal in June. i am not a genius, i bought it many years ago when i had more huevos than brains . sold at $650/sf for 50-yo piece of crap and bought outta state 6-yo place at $100/sf and took tons of cashout (yes, i owe taxes). its w/in 15-minutes of major downtown CBD in a nice area of pacific NW. yes the weather stinks, but do the math. lots of others gonna do the math too, wait until the prices start sropping and people realize that they might have to wait another decade to get outta here.
alot of bugs in houston maybe check out san antonio homes here in san diego are popping up for sale all over and there are many people moving to arizona
Incredible, just incredible From Minneapolis Star Tribune: "When confronted with a series of financial crises -- divorce, loss of his job and $28,000 worth of credit-card and other bills -- Ed Derdzinski did what millions of other Americans have done over the past several years: He bet the house. Since buying and remodeling his owner-occupied Fridley duplex in 1996, the 38-year-old property manager has refinanced four times, a feat aided by rapidly rising home values and banks and other lenders hungry for his business. Along the way, Derdzinski pocketed $100,000 in cash that he hopes to invest in other properties. Meanwhile, the house that he originally bought for $105,000 now has a mortgage of $323,000; his monthly payment, originally $850, is now $1,680. Derdzinski, who makes about $35,000 a year, says he's not worried. Ed Derzinski"I want to retire at a reasonably young age," he said. "I'm not going to do that by working for someone else. It's up to myself and good investing.""
You might remember a few pages back in this thread on 11-11 where I wrote the following... The damage had been done to this chart back then with the break of trendline, and is confirmed now after the chart "back and filled" a bit. It is taking off big time as you can see below on this updated chart. www.hahnscorner.com "The $TYX chart has successfully tested a channel break from a "W" bottom. This often implies that the resulting wave will be a strong one. All momentum indicators are trending up, confirming that long-term interest rates have reversed trend and are climbing. Again, this is a strong technical pattern, that implies a strong move ahead..." chart
Your pretty desperate. You outta check out the yield chart during the 80's. Double digit rates and get this, people were still buying homes! I guess the Weimar Germany fans are upset that "core personal consumption expenditures inflation, excluding food and energy, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, was unchanged at a 0.7 per cent rate in the quarter - the lowest reading since the 1960s." Rates fall faster than they rise. It'll take years for rates to get back to any sort of level that threatens those on fixed income.
Convert is a Realtor. Simple as that. Notice he is short on facts and long on criticism. Also, he looks and reads and finds slight errors. And absolutely no looking ahead. The trademarks of a salesman. Overcome objections or keep your mouth shut and let others put their foot in it. But don't give your opinion. Heck no. Keep your mouth shut is rule #1. A salesman.
Or if not a realtor at least he is an extremely vested "long". My take would be he owns a home and that is most, if not all, his net worth. Probably re-fied a few times up to his eyeballs. Convert, in my area real estate had a very nice run up to about 1979 and then just finally choked and died. Fell flat on it's face as President Carter finished things off with extremely high interest rates. Then about 1984 as interest rates slowly had come down real estate picked it's self up and slowly over the next few years built up in volume to the next peak in 1989-90. The important thing is that although interest rates were double digit in most of the 80's, they still had come way down from their peaks from the Carter years so deals penciled out. Real estate pricing had been so beaten down under Carter that later on it started to move again when it reached low double digit rates. Then and now, it really is the monthly payment and it must pencil out! I remember it well because I bought my first home in 1984 and the timing was just by luck. I still own that POS as a rental. The readings of low inflation are bunk, plain and simple. Anyone who has bought gasoline, plywood, prescription drugs, movie tickets, purchased insurance, hired a plumber, or paid for car repair of late can tell you the govt stats are a big f--ing lie! Of course the govt excludes all but the most benign products for their stats...and when even that fails I think they just lie through their teeth and revise the numbers later! Greenspan has created a real situation for himself with these low rates. He wanted to stimulate the economy and create jobs, but those indicators are lackluster at best. He has stimulated the CRB and commodity inflation though! Holy smokes! Greenspan must raise interest rates, if he does not we will have in short order $100 oil, $50 dollar a sheet plywood, and a plumber will be at least $100 an hour. Starter homes in Los Angeles and Boston will be a cool million. It is time to choke off the monster. Real estate is 'so' priced for perfection with these extremely low interest rates that Greenspan has pushed like crack. With much of any an increase the affordability goes right out the window. It will not pencil out, even if people want/need a house they will not buy for simply then will not be able to until prices come down. Real estate is sewing the seeds of it's destruction as we speak. It will be sewing the seeds of it's renewal as prices correct in the coming years. It will take some time, but real estate will at first stumble, first with conflicting news and mixed results (like now), and then flat out die. It will come to pass. A sample of how Realtors and the press lie... http://piggington.com/ "In the spin department, a couple smart readers have written in to point out the San Diego Union Tribune's latest trick: now that prices have begun to go down month-to-month, the year-over-year appreciation has become the big headline figure. I don't know what's more appalling: the fact that the people at the UT are so obviously shilling for the real estate industry, or the fact that they are so inept at it."