Real Clear Politics Average Down to 1% lead for Obama

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by wildchild, Aug 24, 2012.

  1. It was at 4% just two days ago. Lets see how nasty Obama gets.

    The only weapon he has left is character assassination.
  2. Romney's been caught wrong-footed at every turn. I can't figure out why he's not farther behind. Given everything that's happened (Mormon issue, taxes, Bain Capital, etc) and the amateur campaign team he's burdened with, it's surprising that he's not 10 points behind in the polls.
  3. Not surprising at all imo.That can only be expected with a major 3rd party candidate.I've look at a lot of previous polls and the only time a candidate held a consistent 10 point lead was Bush/Clinton because Perot was consistently polling at 10 %
  4. Romney should be ahead around 4 points right now

    "The other anomaly has been in the summer months — June, July and August. In these months, the polls have tended to low ball the position of the incumbent party’s candidate. In July polls, for instance, the incumbent-party candidate has trailed by an average of 4 points in elections since 1968. However, the incumbent-party candidate has actually won these elections by an average of a little more than 3 points. In other words, there has been a seven-point swing on average toward the incumbent party’s candidate from the July polls until November."
  5. Okay, then it's surprising Romney's not 9 points behind.

    My point is, after all the misteps and problems, and Romney's amateur campaign team making one bad decision after another, this shouldn't even be close against an incumbent president.
  6. Unless there is a legit 3rd party candidate it is always close.Its a myth that the incumbent is supposed to be leading the challenger by multiple points.

    Obama is doing much better then previous incumbents thanks to romney being such a bad candidate
  7. Just keep telling yourself that and everything will be okay.
  8. It is now down to .9. Obama is losing support by the hour.

    Don't worry soon there will be a poll where 65% of its respondents are registered democrats.
  9. prove my post some incumbents who were doing better then obama is now
  10. Aug 23-Aug 25 1996
    Clinton 54% Dole 41%

    Aug 14 1984
    Reagan 52%
    Mondal 41%

    Bush Sr. was doing worst and he lost.

    You are proven WRONG.
    #10     Aug 24, 2012