I am starting this thread to split a discussion. I follow Steve Briese at www.InsiderCapital.com. He does a smart job of aggregating and interpreting the COT data. It is with his newsletters in hand and my own opinions, that I respond. US Equities: It is an amazing state of things that the "smart money" is so strongly short (especially NASDAQ 100) since the breakout in September. With the Facebook fanfare, the market doesn't look weak. Since smart people only hold onto a losing position so long, I am looking for a commercial capitulation. US Debt: Commercial have been buying after a big plunge. Simultaneously, the markets have gone sideways. Looks like interest rates are headed lower again. Commodity Prices: Yes, the COT data has been quite bearish since August of last year. If smart money capitulates, we could be in for a long ride up as quantitative easing could finally deliver massive inflation. On the other hand, perhaps smart money is thinking that the high prices are funded by emerging market hoarding, and that at some point, the lack of buyers must affect the manufacturers. Even if the hoarders don't dump into the market, the run-up prices will settle back quickly and excessive inventories should dampen demand even at much lower levels. I really don't know, but we are watching a big play unfold. Perhaps it is gold buyers overflowing into more marketable products. Gold: Generally, I would love to see COT data on all kinds of instruments. I assume that there is plenty of gossiping coming out of Exchange Clearing Members, but the small guy only gets to see the week-delayed futures positions. At least we have that.