Re-Testing old lows...back to Nov target is 650 for the S&P

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Port1385, Jan 11, 2009.

  1. I was thinking of one Mad Money Jim Cramer show that I watched where he was telling his viewers that Caterpillar would be a great buy when the dividend reaches 4%. Then I looked at the SPY and saw its dividend right around 3%. Did a simple algebraic proportion and realized that the SPY will be at 4% when the S&P clocks strikes 650.

    I have stated and re-stated my target price on the S&P several times in this forum. We have not hit the bottom, we are no where near the bottom. By October of this year we WILL have visited the 600s. The bottom will probably come in 2010 when there is blood in the streets.

    There is fear in the streets, but not blood, not yet. Stick to savings bonds longs...

  2. I agree. the chances of not seeing the 600's is about zero. we never took out the 2002 dow low of 7200 in nov. i see the longer term bottom in the high 500's- mid 600's in 2009. But we also could have a series of lower lows over a 10-20 year period like japan. but still tons of money to be made
  3. slopeofhope is a worthless blog. None of his readers make any money following Tim's advice. All he does is draw some useless lines and shades on a log chart.

    The tim geitner gains made on November 21st and 24th WILL hold.

    Go long now
  4. talknet


    Because of $60 Trillion loss DOW is heading towards 2000-levels. According to Dr. Marc Faber S&P 500 is heading towards 100-levels. Read this-:

    By some estimates, combined losses in commodities, stocks, bonds, real estate are greater than $60 trillion. This is beyond rescue. The chart below, borrowed from Dr. Marc Faber's Market Commentary December 1, 2008, is devastating. The chart shows a stunning loss of $30 trillion stock market wealth around the world.

    The erroneous interpretation that FDR's government programs combined with accommodative monetary policy led us out of the Great Depression will result in policies that destroy the currency. It is of little value to debate what should be done, because this is what will be done. Dr. Marc Faber in his latest Market Commentary correctly surmises, “I have repeatedly characterized the current economic conditions as comparable to a war being fought between central banks around the world and the private sector and that this war is likely to be very protracted and will lead to high volatility in all asset classes. We have seen that governments are desperate to support asset markets with “extraordinary” and unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures…”

    The ill-fated measures will fail and do more harm than good. My interpretation of the charts leads me to conclude that the DJIA will correct all of the way back down to the level of the start of the last secular bull market which began in 1982 of 1000. A similar drop to the 100-level in the S&P 500 is to be also be expected. Gold will resort to its status as a currency and all currencies will deflate against gold. The price of gold will likely top out at a price higher than $1000/oz as the ratio of Dow-to-gold dips below 1:1 as indicated in the chart below:
  5. no no no. all of that is wrong.
  6. LOL, I agree with you man.
  7. You are right. All of that is wrong. Money is made in the market just by following a few simple lines and common sense.

    What has happened in times like this for a bottom to be achieved? Price has to test the same levels at least twice is the answer.

    Has price violated a simple trend line? Yes, see above chart.

    Does it look like we are in an uptrend, a downtrend or a trading range? Trading range, but the trend does look to me like it might turn down.

    The first five trading days of January usually dictate how January will be. So are we up or down so far? We are down so January will probably be a down month and 2009 will be a down year.

    Well, I could go on and on with the simple questions. Simple questions and observations will determine market direction not complex anectdotes or hopeful thinking and certainly not Jim Cramer.

    If I may make a suggestion, has some great savings bonds. I buy some each week and they are doing a lot better then anything else out there.

    They are the one thing you can buy and hold and rest assured that they will keep making money.

  8. Hmm the dow future shows an open lower by 90 points. Seems way excessive.

    I would also add that the dow should be at 13,000.
  9. You made some good calls in the past because you were following the trend. Why not follow the trend this time around?

    The trend always goes in a certain direction until it hits a floor or a ceiling where it cannot break through. Right now the trend is down until it isnt down. The trend is your friend.

  10. I agree, its all about putting your ego or bias aside and trading the market the way it wants, not what you want. By this I mean finding the path of least resistance and caring not which way that is.
    #10     Jan 11, 2009