Re-opening Schools in the era of COVID

Discussion in 'Politics' started by gwb-trading, Jul 13, 2020.

  1. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    More than 1 million US children have been diagnosed with Covid-19, pediatricians say
    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-...16-20-intl/h_35e53f6ad92ace2f0b6faec0d370ca8a

    More than one million US children under 18 have been diagnosed with Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic, the American Academy of Pediatrics and Children’s Hospital Association said Monday.

    “As of Nov. 12, a total of 1,039,464 children have tested positive for Covid-19 since the onset of the pandemic. In the one-week period ending Nov. 12th, there were 111,946 new cases in children, which is substantially larger than any previous week in the pandemic,” the groups said in a joint statement.


    “The increase tracks surges in the virus in communities across the U.S.,” they added.

    “As a pediatrician who has practiced medicine for over three decades, I find this number staggering and tragic. We haven’t seen a virus flash through our communities in this way since before we had vaccines for measles and polio,” Dr. Sally Goza, president of the American Academy of Pediatrics, which represents pediatricians, said.

    "We urgently need a new, nationwide strategy to control the pandemic, and that should include implementing proven public health measures like mask wearing and physical distancing,” Goza added in a statement.

    “This pandemic is taking a heavy toll on children, families and communities, as well as on physicians and other front-line medical teams. We must work now to restore confidence in our public health and scientific agencies, create fiscal relief for families and pediatricians alike, and support the systems that support children and families such as our schools, mental health care, and nutrition assistance," she said.

    While severe illness and deaths remain rare, the group urged health authorities to do more to collect data on longer-term effects on the health of children.
     
    #431     Nov 16, 2020
  2. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    How many kids got the flu in 2019?
     
    #432     Nov 17, 2020
  3. August 21, 2020 – CDC today reported one new seasonal flu-related death in a child that occurred during the 2019-2020 season, bringing the total number of flu deaths in children reported to CDC for last season to 188. This matches the highest recorded number for pediatric flu deaths reported during a regular flu season, which occurred during the 2017-2018 flu season.



    As of last CDC report a week or so ago, COVID child deaths was recorded at 133.


    Sadly COVID "Season" is not over by at least a few more months at least... hopefully the measures in place and in schools will keep the child numbers down.



    Let's look at this:

    CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths fromi nfluenza
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html


    FLU: 35 million cases 34,200 deaths

    COVID: 10-11 million cases 245,000 deaths




    So how is COVID just like the FLU then?
     
    #433     Nov 17, 2020
  4. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    First, no one is saying COVID is like the flu. Well, not unless you are.

    This is a thread about COVID and education, and schools. So you can't post numbers about 25 million cases with 34k deaths and then 11 million cases and 245k deaths, because you have to do it with the students, not the whole population. You're quoting everyone. Including the elderly, the very sick, the co-morbid, etc. Its a pointless comparison. Even if you put it in large, bold red font.

    The question should be how many kids die from both diseases? If you can show that school age children die so much more (significantly more), then COVID is far more deadly to kids and we should do something to protect kids that we've not done before - up to and including shutting schools.

    If you can't (and you can't) then the question becomes - why didn't we shut down schools for the flu? And the answer is, because we didn't have to. Because we knew that kids get sick, and then kids recover so shutting down school for the 70 million kids in the country is completely fucking stupid.

    The same rule holds true for COVID. Again, unless you can show that many more kids die from COVID. And you can't.
     
    #434     Nov 17, 2020
  5. Sorry but it was literally in my post that you glossed over.

    It was in my post... 188 Flu deaths.. 133 COVID deaths so far.

    i said hopefully the COVID deaths will stay below the flu because we are doing more than we normally do wtih the flu as far as hygiene and distancing but since it is only NOV and kids are going to be more inside than before due to weather let's hope that does not push the numbers higher.
     
    #435     Nov 17, 2020
  6. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    I didn't gloss over. But you ended with a comment that made it sound as if you were arguing that COVID is much different than the flu. That may be, but it isn't different in the mortality of school kids. And that is what matters in this discussion. If kids don't die then they aren't at risk. If they aren't at risk, then keeping them isolated does more harm than good. A lot more.

    As for whether the deaths stay below the flu deaths, the crisis began - what, March? It has a run rate of 200 deaths, which would put it 12 deaths higher than flu. That assumes deaths continue at the same pace all year, where we know they aren't in any age group - they are much better. But lets pretend we end up 12 deaths higher. Hell, lets double it. 400 kids dead.

    Again, over 70 million kids are school age. We should shut down schools because of 400 kids dead? We should handicap kids, rob them of proper education, proms, sports, subject them to the psychological damages and anxieties and suicides and depressions because of this?

    I cannot believe you would make that argument.
     
    #436     Nov 17, 2020

  7. Private schools are open ona hybrid system and many public schools are on a virtual system or also a hybrid system. School sprots are scheduled to start next month for Winter with Fall sports moved to late Winter early spring. it is not idea but kids carry this thing which is far more deadly to adults than the flu.

    Let's lose the hyperbole to have a real conversation. I am not making a crazy over the top argument that schools are cancelled and sports are cancelled. They have just been modified.
     
    #437     Nov 17, 2020
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Every other first world nation has national standards on when schools should open/close and the necessary COVID safety precautions required in the schools (masks, distancing, % of student on-campus, etc.). These standards also take in account the local community prevalence of COVID -- when the COVID level locally goes up then schools have more restrictions or close down.

    You can open K-12 schools safely if you have a well thought-out plan based on science that is used across all school systems in the country. The U.S. does not have this -- every school system is going their own direction.

    The CDC tried to put forward a national school COVID safety plan based on science but Trump nixed it because it was "too tough".
     
    #438     Nov 17, 2020
  9. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    I'm not sure what argument you're trying to make. You simply showed up here and made a comment about how we should not make comparisons between COVID and the flu. Since then, you haven't stated what position you have, so I've had to guess.

    Kindly clarify and I won't have to guess.
     
    #439     Nov 17, 2020

  10. Your question was about how many kids get the flu versus COVID.

    I showed that while many millions more kids get the flu than COVID, the COVID death tally was only slightly behind the flu total deaths. If nothing at all was done the children cases would reach millions and the death rate described above would mean the COVID deaths would easily dwarf flu deaths.

    So remediation measures are necessary as they were back in APR - JUNE.

    Here is the rub. USA is a HUUUUUUGE country in 3 time zones. The initial reaction really only directly affected the costal states. However it takes months for COVID to spread outside of ports of entry and now you see the spike in cases in the middle of the country and mid-South.

    WHen we get back to school in August most of the country had not even had their major surge in cases and were now just getting to the point NJ and CAL were. Not politics...simple geography. Even FL got hit hard when you look at total deaths.

    Many East schools moved back to hybrid alreayd or are in early stages of doing so, many private schools went the same route. They are ahead of the curve where the middle of the country is because of this geography. There is a recent spike in cases because people are fucktards and get lazy and so schools are pulling back somewhat.

    If people just practiced good hygience, social distancing and masks combined, then the roll out plan to get kids back in school would continue without a hitch. I don't know about Florida but me and my family represent 4 coastal states and they all are at different stages of being in school with a slight rollback at the moment.

    The reason is because COVID is deadlier to kids than the flu and and teachers are also afraid. A school that houses 2300 kids in a building built for 1900 cannot practice all the required recommendations which describes most public schools. So they might have to be hybrid for a few months longer into JAN/FEB until the population gets it. Private schools have so much space to spread kids out and bring in PPE so they are mostly opened here (one just closed and shifted back to virtual after mini outbreak).

    My son is 100% virtual planned to go back at the end of January because he is older and the younger more at need kids are rolling in first in stages. Kindergarten was planned today but pushed back 2 weeks due to spike in cases.

    This plan will continue as long as people in my area stay good in following the rules. I go to malls, stores, restaurants, supermarkets, and parks so life is not shut down, only for small business which the government should open their purse wide rather than bail out large publicly traded companies.

    So schools are not shutdown and kids are not locked out, every state is in varying stages of virtual, hybrid and full attendance. This will continue because we are so big and so full of people who don't want to practice safe "sex" outside their homes. I was astonished at a guy coming into a take out place 2 days ago without a mask. The woman behind the counter offered him one so that he could order and then wait outside. He acted like a cunt, got mad and left. Good stay the fuck out.
     
    #440     Nov 17, 2020