RE: How are you

Discussion in 'Economics' started by molite, Feb 2, 2009.

  1. molite


    I’m in construction.
    Expecting to be laid off, I’ve been lurking here for three years reading books and paper trading. Trying to teach myself to be a day trader as a fall back job.
    One of my friends sent me an e-mail that he had been laid off.
    I thought you guys might find it interesting. (I did changed the names)
    Please comment on the accuracy of the e-mail.
    Post any e-mails you may have run across that are in the same vain.
    And assuming the assumptions and observations made below are correct what should I be watching as possible profitable trades? (Both short and long term)


    I hope you have been able to avoid the lay offs we are experiencing in the market.

    I was let go by the company I went to work for in Chattanooga, TN. The owner, I guess couldn’t see selling his plane to keep afloat. They lost all of the 2009 business. One of the hotel projects started in November of 2008 was "moth balled" until the developer can find funding. The owner decided to take over project managing and with only three projects being worked at this time he took my two and let me go. Nice guy.

    I hope you are well.


    I have to pinch myself.
    I still have a job.
    I’ve been with XYZ for 17 years and our owner says he has the pockets to ride this out.
    (Our owner sold the Leer Jet but kept the Gulf Stream)
    However, the fifth round of layoffs was last week.
    Those of us that are left have had around 40% in pay cuts.
    The company pretty much looks like it did in the early 80’s.

    I heard PQR has done a bunch of layoffs.
    I don’t think CBA has much going on. As far as I know they have no new jobs on the books.
    Just the ones they had when you were there and those are all waiting financing.
    However, those gritty/tenacious CBA’S play it close to the vest and I know they will survive with their low overhead.
    They have been through 2 or 3 more PM’s on that job you left.

    Read this:
    You may find this article interesting. I think hotels are done for a while.
    The owners can’t make their payments in most markets.

    While the uniformed media and everyone else says this will last another year or two….
    The word on the street is realtors are swamped with lo-ball cash offers.
    It appears the big money is out bottom fishing. They are taking their money out of the toxic stock market and putting it into real-estate, as a “buy and hold”, to weather the storm and protect it from taxes and the falling dollar.
    They don’t pay taxes until they sell. So, all that money will just sit there until the tax and spend democrats are out of office.
    However, at least the inventory is getting snatched up.

    I guess the bail out money that went to the banks is allowing them to loosen up and start selling those foreclosures at pennies on the dollar.
    I thought the bail out money was supposed to allow the banks to start lending; (now we know where it is going.)
    If they create a “bad bank” to hold all of those bad mortgages then the informed money won’t get to steel them like they are.
    They will probably/eventually create the “bad bank” but not until the awesome properties are snatched up.
    The tax payer will once again get stuck holding the stinkers.
    I wonder if this was the plan all along….. Oh to be a fly on the wall.

    I guess the informed money will need property managers for all of their real-estate holdings.
    I wonder the nationality of the informed money? Probably the same as who loaned U.S. the 850 billion.
    That way they get U.S. from both ends.

    Keep me informed of your plans I may be where you are one day and need your advice and market outlook.


    So thats whats its like down in the trenches of the housing bust.
  2. very bad idea to try to teach yourself to be a trader as a fallback job
  3. molite


    I've been lurking for three years.
    I've seen that sage advise a 1000 times.
    I'm going to be the .0000001% that succeeds.
    I also have the winning lotto ticket.

    However, I see the big money buying up the forclosuers
    How can a small time investor profit?
  4. AAA30


    Your mind is too full of shit, backwards opinions to make it as a trader.
  5. molite


    You know, your not the first person to say that to me.
    Is it that obvious or do you just say that to all the new guys?

    Becauuse I realy do want to make it as a trader one day.

  6. nothing wrong with trading, the key is to diversify your time and assets. Don't pass up a quick paying side gig to watch a screen. Its not as easy as it looks but neither is swinging a hammer. The key is to learn how to trade without blowing out. A lot of smart traders will never place more than 2% on a single trade, 2% of 100,000 is 2,000 so that would be your disaster stop. You get the idea. I am more aggressive and when I see an opportunity I am willing to lose up to 10%. Ten bad trades and you are done. Ride winners, keep losses small.
  7. I met a plumber/builder once, who was replacing those plastic pipes in my house that weren't worth a crap.

    We started talking and I told him about swing trading.

    We cut a deal and I programmed his brand new computer with several swing trading strategies that I invented.

    About a year later, he called me and said that he was now trading full time and doing great.
  8. ======================
    mo info.
    Mainly ,realize real estate is really much different from stocks;
    you can easily see Citigroup & LEH go to zero[goose egg]:cool:
  9. Div_Arb


    WTF - Did you program this secret code into Power Point or something??

  10. molite


    First I can’t believe the caliber of people that have left a mark in my little thread, thanks guys! Basically, being part of the Florida housing boom and bust and looking back, we were the bell weather for the mess the economy is in. So now every realtor I talk to says they are swamped with cash offers from big money snatching up real-estate. So what does that mean? How can one profit in the short term or long term. Or is this just something to wait and watch?
    #10     Feb 3, 2009