I'm going to run this journal to see if making my calls publicly affects the performance of my system in any way. I may or may not choose to give a little information on how I make my calls, but I will post when I enter or change a position so that the trades can be verified. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=912557#post912557 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=912606#post912606 On 11/30/05, at market close, I went long the ES@1251.00. --------------------------------------- http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=913491#post913491 On 12/01/05, at market close (1264.50), I decided to remain long the ES and not close the position. Current Net: +13.50 points --------------------------------------- http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=914584#post914584 On 12/02/05, at market close, I reversed, going short the ES@1266.00. Current Net: +15.00 points --------------------------------------- http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=916525#post916525 On 12/05/05, at market close, I covered and then went short again @1263.75, avoiding the spread with a little work and luck. Current Net: +17.25 points -Raystonn
Some clarifications: 1) At the end of every trading day, I perform market analysis to determine my direction for the next trading day. 2) I enter all trades as soon as possible after completing analysis, holding through the overnight session and the next day session. The price at which I entered, or the settlement price if I choose to maintain the position, is my marker price for the next step. 3) Unless otherwise noted, I will maintain a hard 10-point stop from the marker price. This ensures I do not lose more than 10 points in a single day, helping to limit the effects of a Black Swan event. 4) Since I cannot enter trades Friday after market close, these trades will occur Sunday when the pre-market opens. Thus, I will always close my positions out to be flat on Saturday.
Raystonn: I second you, my analysis also shows that the market is gonna go down tomorrow..and then up, up and up from wednesday onwards until next tuesday atleast, and then some breather , and up again until christmas... Unfortunately, I cannot hold my positions overnight....I only trade at the market open and close out at the market close... Do you think i shud be holding the positions overnight...?? Do u think its a better strategy to hold overnight ??/ Just a newbie, trying hard at the ES...Have been successful with stocks and mutual funds..but recently moved to futures with the help of some artificial intelligence...neural networks...
That depends on your strategy, your timeframe, your ability to react during the night, and your aversion to risk. If you have a system where you are confident in the direction of the market, then there shouldn't be any reason not hold the position overnight. In fact, some of the expected gains may or may not occur during the night. That depends on what time various big money traders get to the office, which is largely unpredictable. -Raystonn
dont know what went wrong in my analysis....everything is up now....by 4.75 points actually....still short???
GOT lucky today I guess...I trusted my analysis and went ahead to short at the market open with only a two point gain limit. It hit that point at around 9:15. From thenn on it has gone up so much and will stay up as the energy has rebounded and you know when energy stocks go up, it kind of drags the market up nowadays..it was the other other way few months ago....
It's fascinating that the moment I post a stop on a public forum, the market runs to it, hits it, and then reverses. Classic. This is just reaffirming to me that posting calls publicly is detrimental. As of this moment I am changing my strategy to use 15 point stop losses. The stops are meant to ensure the account is not killed by a fluke Black Swan event. Prior to posting publicly, 10 point stop losses were wide enough. But now that may have changed. Anyhow, I'm not going to lie and say I cancelled my stop loss, and I'm not going to lie and say I got back in and caught the run back down. Without the stop loss this would be a fairly break even day. But I'm forced to post a 10 point loss, and the alteration of my strategy as outlined above. So, to summarize: On 12/06/05, I was stopped @1273.75. I will post a new opening trade after the post-market analysis. Current Net: +7.25 points -Raystonn
Hey raystonne, WHAT CAUSED THE RUN DOWN ALL THE WAY FROM 1273.75??? I think the reason why your stop loss was hit was because the market was already up by 6 points when it opened in the morning. So it only needed 4 points to hit your stop loss. So a 4 point stop loss to be hit after the market opens is NOT that hard. So a 10 pooint stop loss is a GOOD enough...BUT ONLY WITHIN THE MARKET HOURS. YOU ARE NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVE. So to summarise, I dont think because you posted it in a public forum, your stop was hit...ES is liquid enough and there are thousands of contracts being traded daily. If you dont mind, you can PM me with your calls privately to me, if you do not want to post them online I do have a very interesting thing that I discovered ...it really works 80% of the time. regards, monarc
There were more sellers than buyers at that point. Most of the smart money wanted the market to remain mostly flat or go down by the end of the day. Through analysis I can see how the smart money is positioning itself for the immediate future. This usually plays out the very next day. Sometimes the smart money may wait a bit before playing out their positions. -Raystonn
Yep, thanks - I ran the market all the way to your stop - exactly - then I pulled the rug out. I wouldn't have done that if I hadn't read your post(s). Thanks again!