Ray Neidl *Canlyon*-How could he have been tricked By delta management

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by mahram, May 10, 2005.

  1. How could I an analyst so experienced, could have been tricked by Delta management into raising delta's rating and calling the all clear signal. Less then 3 months later delta is declaring they have no choice in the near future but to delcare bankruptcy. How could Neidl been tricked. Should niedl be held accountable. It didnt take a genius to figure out delta was in trouble in january, and it certainly didnt take a genius to figure out delta had no chance to avoid bankruptcy in march. So the question go, How or Why did Ray do it? Ray it was less then 3 months, and delta is now saying there simplifares and costs cuts arent working, so either A you lied to us Ray Neidl *which is a criminal act* or B you are incompetant *which means you should be fired* or C you were tricked. And none of those options are good.

    Analyst Likes Delta's Chances

    By Ross Snel
    TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
    2/15/2005 10:49 AM EST

    Delta Air Lines (DAL:NYSE - news - research) shares gained Tuesday after Calyon Securities upgraded them on a rosy assessment of the company's turnaround plan.

    Shares were up 9 cents, or 1.6%, at $5.67 after rising by as much as 7.2%.

    Ray Neidl, Calyon's airline analyst, raised his rating on the stock to add from neutral. "After meeting with management, our confidence that Delta can execute its plan to address its cost structure and overly leveraged balance sheet has increased," Neidl wrote in a research note explaining the upgrade. (Calyon has not received compensation for investment banking from Delta in the last year and does not expect to receive or seek such compensation in the next three months.)

    After achieving $1 billion in annual savings from a new pilots contract late last year, Delta last month rocked the industry with its SimpliFares program, which simplified pricing and reduced maximum fares. The airline also executed a major rescheduling at its Atlanta hub.

    "We believe that, over the next 12 months, while the company addresses its overly leveraged balance sheet, Delta will also realize the benefits from its recent cost cuts, schedule changes and streamlined operations," Neidl wrote. "As a result, we believe that Delta could have substantial upside potential in returning to profitability and in its stock price. We believe that Delta will now survive the slow winter period, even with the dilutive impact of SimpliFares, and then benefit from the higher cash flow typically seen during the spring and summer seasons."

    The Atlanta-based carrier had a fourth-quarter net loss of $2.2 billion, or $16.58 a share, including noncash charges totaling $1.4 billion, vs. a loss of $327 million, or $2.69 a share, a year ago.

    The airline industry has been plagued with high fuel prices, overcapacity and cutthroat price competition.
  2. You think Calyon had some hedge funds interested in selling some Delta paper? I would hang my hat on it.
  3. Get Spitzer on this one after he is done with spyware.
  4. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    there could be a simpler explanation, he is just doing his job selling his firm flavor of the day.
  5. range


    Another explanatiion: its tough to predict the future. Over time, a great analyst will be right more than the competiion. Who is right all the time?

    Warren Buffet lost in USAir securities.

    George Soros lost in Russian securites in 1998.

    Everyone has bad picks.
  6. but 3 months before announcing BK is eminent.....what a sham. Wow, you get some right and you get some wrong...really wrong...This is not TA...its fundamental prospectus analysis...
  7. that was my same response. It didnt take a genius to figure out that for delta's plan to work, it would require perfect situations, and even beyond perfect. Delta was predicting 35$ oil, at this time of year. Theres absolutely no way a company like delta could have avoided bankruptcy. Neil knew that, it wasnt phd level mathematics to figure out that oil would be over 35$ a barrel, and it would take longer then a year to work out labour changes. My question again, is what Neil did was it a criminal action, and should Neil be censored for it.