Discussion in 'Economics' started by Bogan7, Jun 28, 2007.
Anyone think the Fed will cut today?
Definate lack of interest in this post I was just wondering if anyone had a different take or opinion but obviously thet dont
I am not sure your analysis of the lack of interest is accurate. It is just that FFFs implied rates are so good at predicting FED action, that debating whether the FED will or won't change rates is sort of hollow.
If you had said, should the FED cut rates and give your reasons why they should or shouldn't, it may have been more interesting (from the perspective of the replies you may have gotten).
Today, I think the FED should stand pat 70% of the time, cut 10% of the time, and raise the other 20%. The slew of raises have now had a chance to work their way into the economy, and I would say it has done almost nothing to slow down inflation. The only effect it has had is in popping the housing bubble.
My probability for a raise is going up each month by 5%, so that by early next year, the probability of a raise on any given FED day is 50%, until they raise.
The fed should hike rates, but will probably soon cut rates. In the mean time they will do nothing.
They should hike, but they won't. They should not cut, and they also won't. They'll sit as they are on perma hold for a long time to come.
Cut is not in store; Hike is reasonable action but fed wouldn't do it. so; stay unchanged.
As of 27th
rates will stay unchanged at 5.25% and the market will rally!!
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