Ransquawk Weekly European Commentary

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Ransquawk, Nov 13, 2007.

  1. Ransquawk

    Ransquawk ET Sponsor

    As expected, the ECB left its key rate on hold at 4.00% last week with President Jean-Claude Trichet remaining hawkish on present inflation risks. Trichet reiterated, in-line with recent ECB speak, that the central bank is ready to counter the upside inflation risk and sees last month's rise to a two-month high as a concern. However, striking the balance and sympathising with the doves, Trichet said the central bank requires additional data before deciding rates and will continue to observe the market. It is worth noting that when Trichet was directly questioned in regards to the record high Euro, he managed to avoid direct commentary instead saying he had witnessed brutal and sharp FX moves.

    This week sees the release of German ZEW survey for November with economists expecting the survey to resume its downward trend after a surprising unchanged reading the previous month. Economists at RBS said the recent weeks have been unfavourable citing record oil prices and the Euro levels and with falling equity markets led by banking stocks.

    The first estimate of Euro-Zone growth for Q3 is due on Wednesday with an increase to 0.6% expected Q/Q. Economists at BNP Paribas said a pickup from Q2 will likely be led by investment and with construction weakness in the previous quarter unwinding. Last week EU’s Alumina said that economic growth is becoming more moderate and the downside risks have clearly increased in the current enviroment. The EU Commission stated that growth will slow to 2.2 percent in 2008 and even further to 2.1 percent in 2009, from 2.6 percent this year.

    Speakers scheduled for this week include ECB’s Trichet speaking alongside French central banker Noyer and economy minister Lagarde on Wednesday. John Hurley will also be conducting a press conference in Dublin later that morning. Germany’s Jürgen Stark will be speaking in Munich on Thursday. This week will also see a relatively large amount of supply in europe with Greece selling EUR 1.4bln 2 year bonds, Germany selling EUR 7bln bunds, Italy EUR 2-3bln worth of 2018 bonds and the week and Spain selling EUR 1.25-1.75bln in a 2010 auction on Thursday.

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