RANSquawk U.S. Weekly Outlook

The U.S. markets will roar back into full gear this week, as participants return from the Thanksgiving holiday with anxiety at relatively high levels and the economic data calendar full. The economy could be poised for a broad economic downturn, however there is still no firm evidence that the housing market slowdown is affecting consumer or investment spending; but this week’s data could make or break that view.

Monday will be a relatively quiet day, with the Chicago Fed’s November National Activity Index due at 1330 GMT. On Tuesday at 1400, we’ll see the S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Market Index for September, which will give us a better idea of how much the housing market recession is affecting the prices of homes in large metropolitan areas. At 1500, Consumer Confidence for November is due. The Index is likely to have fallen further this month as higher gasoline prices, the stock market weakness and expectations for further falls in home prices weighed on sentiment. We’ll also be keeping a close eye on the job availability information within this index, with the November unemployment rate at a serious risk of moving up to 4.8% from the current 4.7% level.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for November is also due at 1500. At 1900, we are likely to get the release of the minutes of the various meetings between members of the Fed’s Board of Governors where the level of the discount rate would have been discussed. At the October 31st meeting, 6, or half of the regional Fed presidents submitted requests for a cut in the discount rate. 2200 brings us the release of the weekly ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index.

Revisions to building permits data are due at 1230 on Wednesday. At 1330, we’ll see the release of the advance estimate of November Durable Goods data. November Existing Home Sales are due at 1500, and the Fed’s Beige Book is due at 1900.

The second pass of Q3 GDP is due at 1330 on Thursday. It’s quite possible that inventory builds could have pushed the second estimate above the 4.0% level. Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims are also due at 1330. The OFHEO House Price Index, Help Wanted and New Home Sales are all due at 1500. Otherwise, the November Kansas City Manufacturing Index is due at 1600.

The data calendar wraps up with October PCE at 1330 and the November Chicago PMI reading at 1445. Construction Spending and the Milwaukee PMI are due at 1500.

It’s a fairly busy week for Fed-speak. Fed’s Evans (Chicago, FOMC voter) speaks at 1330 on Monday. Richard Fisher (Dallas, non-voter) speaks on the economy at 1330 on Tuesday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at 0000 on Thursday. On Friday, Charles Plosser (Philadelphia, non-voter) speaks at 1500, William Poole (St. Louis, FOMC voter) speaks at 1730 and Randall Kroszner (Board Of Governors, voter) speaks at 1815.

In terms of Treasury supply, on Monday at 1600 we’ll receive the details of the Fed’s 2-year and 5-year notes to be auctioned this week. On Wednesday at 1800, the results of the 2-year note auction are due; the 5-year note results are due 24 hours later.