Ransquawk Overnight News Summary 21/11/07

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Ransquawk, Nov 21, 2007.

  1. Ransquawk

    Ransquawk ET Sponsor


    JGB's rose to fresh 22-month highs as Tokyo share prices extended losses (Nikkei -2.46%), prompting investors to seek the safety of government debt (RTRS) At 0630 JGB's were trading 137.30 (+0.32).

    Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said economic growth will average 11.5%, the same it has throughout the year suggesting no signs of an economic slowdown (Xinhua News Agency) A state run think-tank sees CPI at 4% in 2008, a modest decline form the 4.5% expected for this year.

    SPREADS - US 2s/10s (0630) 93.19 bps (88.99 bps at 2100); US 10s/30s (0630) 44.73 bps (38.81 bps at 2100); EURO 2s/10s (0630) Unchanged (32.10 bps at 2100); EURO 10s/30s (0630) Unchanged (39.20 bps at 2100)

    US/GE 10s (0630): 3.06 bps (3.10 bps at 2100)
    UK/GE 10s (0630): Unchanged (56.70 bps at 2100)

    FOMC Minutes: October 31st rate cut was a 'close call', FOMC discussed leaving rates unchanged, growth to slow and then rebound (BBG)**
    The FOMC minutes indicated that December easing was not a 'done deal', however, there was nothing in the minutes to suggest that a rate cut was fully off the table. In terms of the economic forecasts, the FOMC downgraded its 2008 real GDP forecast to 1.8%-2.5% from 2.4%-2.5%, however it is important to note that the wide forecast range does highlight the uncertainty which prevails on the FOMC. The other theme regarding the forecasts was that the FOMC sees tame core and headline inflation after 2008 as energy and food prices subside.

    US Treasury Secretary Paulson said the number of potential US home-loan defaults "will be significantly bigger" in 2008 than in 2007 (WSJ)**

    Fed forecasts emphasize risks - Greg Ip (WSJ)**
    Details suggest officials are open to more rate cuts.

    Fed lays out its long-term goals, not next move - John Berry (WSJ)**

    Countrywide Financial calls bankruptcy rumors 'absolutely false' (WSJ)**
    Rumors were circulating during the session yesterday that a bankruptcy filing was imminent. Later the company issued a statement saying that it has ample liquidity and capital.

    Merrill Lynch drops Fed Funds forecast to 2.0% by Q3 2009, had seen Fed Funds at 3.5% by middle of 2008 (BBG)**
    Merrill Lynch sees the 2-year note yield converging at the 2.0% Fed Funds rate, currently at 3.20%.

    Former Fed Governor Greenspan said moves towards resolving the subprime mess have been halted (BBG)

    ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index Falls To -19 In November 18 Week (MNI)
    Previously, the Index stood at -17.

    ECB's Bini Smaghi: oil prices have not caused wage inflation, but sees new spike in perceived inflation (RTRS)**
    Bini Smaghi also said that the ECB's primary task is to achieve price stability.

    ECB board member says rhetoric can reinforce and replace rate moves (WSJ)**
    The board member in question was Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, who's comments indicated that the ECB won't raise interest rates anytime soon despite rising inflation.

    Man Group CEO said one hedge fund in ten to go bust (FT)

    Oil shot above $99 to a record high moving closer to the $100 milestone as the US dollar plumbed new lows and the onset of cold US weather stirred anxiety over winter supplies (RTRS) At 0630 crude was trading $98.75 up 72c.

    Beaumont, Texas refinery back at normal rates, ExxonMobil says (DJ)**

    The above commentary was provided by Real-time Analysis & News (R.A.N) Ltd (known to traders as “Ransquawk”) operates from 0630GMT until 2200GMT to incorporate full coverage of the US bond and equity futures markets. Currently R.A.N covers Bond, STIR and Index futures in the US, UK and Eurozone as well as NYMEX crude and Gold. Furthermore, R.A.N has a stand alone Forex service (Ransquawk FX) which covers all the major currency pairs. Coverage is based around the economic calendar for that day but the product finds its value looking at flows, rumours and breaking news and delivers that information to the customer via an internet ‘squawk-box’.

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