RANSquawk Energy Weekly Outlook

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Ransquawk, Nov 26, 2007.

  1. Ransquawk

    Ransquawk ET Sponsor

    Amid the US dollar falling to new record lows this past week against the euro and Swiss franc and to a two year low against the yen, WTI crude futures climbed to an all-time high on Wednesday of $99.29.

    However, by Friday oil prices retreated to $98.10 following bearish supply data from the EIA on Wednesday, showing a 1.2M barrel build in crude inventories at Cushing (the delivery point for WTI), and a report by Oil Movements on Thursday, which said that OPEC exports, excluding Angola, were set to rise the most this year by 720K b/d in the four weeks to Dec. 8.

    While the data helped ease some concerns about tight supplies, the market will need to see more evidence of higher supplies and inventory builds, especially in the U.S., before any substantial easing of oil prices will occur. Last week U.S. Energy Secretary, Bodman, underscored the tightness in global oil inventories by saying that OECD stocks were 100 million barrels below the 5 year average. With OPEC's summit now history, market attention this week will turn to the producing group's next meeting on Dec. 5 in Abu Dhabi. If oil prices remain around or surpass $100 a barrel, OPEC will be hard pressed to increase production in the face of mounting pressure from consuming countries or risk even higher prices, which could derail demand further and lower world economic growth at a time when the U.S. economy is slowing. Until now Saudi Arabia has left the door open to hiking output in Dec., but it remains to be seen whether the Kingdom will have enough clout to convince hawkish members such as Venezuela and Iran of the need for additional OPEC supplies, who have repeatedly maintained that more oil in the market will not lower prices.