Ransquawk Energy Markets Commentary - Nov. 30, 2007 (Last Posting)

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Ransquawk, Nov 30, 2007.

  1. Ransquawk

    Ransquawk ET Sponsor

    Energy futures are trading mostly lower today following comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke last night on a dimmer U.S. economic outlook due to a resurgence of financial strain and following news late yesterday that Canada’s Enbridge had restarted 3 of 4 key pipelines from Canada to the U.S. with service of line 4 expected back within days. Also weighing on prices was a report by the oil tanker tracker, Oil Movements, yesterday saying that OPEC oil exports are set to rise 480,000 b/d in the four weeks to Dec. 15, suggesting that OPEC is making good on its pledge to boost output 500K b/d from Nov. 1.

    In addition to saying that the U.S. economic outlook had dimmed, Fed Chairman Bernanke in his remarks at a Charlotte Chamber of Commerce event last night highlighted the negative impact of high gas prices by stating that “the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter credit conditions, and declines in stock prices seem likely to create some head winds for the consumer in the month’s ahead.”

    Further with respect to the Oil Movements report, an executive with the consultancy, Roy Mason, told Reuters that the jump on OPEC volumes expected in the four weeks to mid December was only 50K b/d short of the highest total this year recorded in late January. Mason said that evidence from global crude oil freight markets back up his supply estimates. Two weeks ago Oil Movements referenced a 720K b/d rise in OPEC shipments in Nov.

    Indonesia’s Energy Minister, Yusgiantoro, said today that OPEC should focus on increasing oil production to meet their existing targets. His comments suggest a reversal in his position from Tuesday when he said that his country would back any move by OPEC to raise production. In recent days, OPEC officials have played down the need for additional OPEC supplies with Ecuador’s oil minister saying yesterday that it is unlikely that the cartel with decide to increase output next week. Additionally, the Saudi oil minister commented two days ago that there is no relationship between fundamentals and the price of oil, hinting that any action by OPEC would have little or no impact on prices. With oil prices now below $90 a barrel compared to WTI’s record settlement of $98.18 last Friday, it appears unlikely now that OPEC will agree to boost supplies next week on Dec. 5 in Abu Dhabi.

    In the U.S. Conoco Phillips plans to submit a proposal today, according to Dow Jones, to build a $30 billion natural gas pipeline from Alaska to the lower 48 states. The company said that if its proposal is expected, it hopes to start preliminary engineering work next year.

    On the weather front, Accuweather wrote today that with stubborn cold air in place, a nasty mix of snow and ice will spread over southern New York and the northern mid-Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday. Additionally, a storm will intensify off the New England coast next week Monday with heavy snow wrapping back into northern New England. The rest of the Northeast and Midwest will have to endure brutally cold winds that day. The winds flowing over the mild Great Lakes will also ignite a significant lake-effect snow event that may get measured in feet, not inches.

    At 12:15 p.m. BST WTI crude futures are down $1.80 to $89.20. RBOB gasoline futures are off 3.53 cents to $2.2304 and heating oil futures are falling 4.55 cents to $2.5337. Natural gas futures are rising 4.8 cents to $7.50. Dec. RBOB gasoline and heating oil futures expire today.

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