11 percent of black Obama voters stayed home in 2016.Black voter turnout was down eight points in 2016 from 2012.Obama had a 90% + black approval rating,Bidens black approval is around 60. Add to that Stein getting a million more votes in 2016 than 2012 along with millions of white progressives staying home white women were not the deciding demographic. I predict the black and progressive turnout drop from 2020 to 2024 will be far greater than the black and progressive turnout drop from 2012 to 2016 if Biden or another moderate is the nominee.
Obama lost millions of white moderate democrats in 2012,but due to blacks and progressives he still won,even The EC by a good margin
What Biden can expect from black voters in 2024,which his 30 points below Obama black approval confirms.
And black voters aren’t historically progressive. They went heavily for Clinton and Biden in the primaries over Sanders.
Polls from black voters said they did that because they thought Biden and Hillary had the best chance to win.That doesn't matter when enough blacks don't like you,like in Hillary's case where enough blacks gave her the nomination but enough blacks didn't like her that 11 percent of them stayed home compared to 2012,and Hillary's favorable ratings with blacks were higher than Bidens current 60% To get the black voter turnout needed to win a democrats needs around a 90 % approval rating with blacks.
Obama had proven by 2012 that he wasn't some super progressive candidate. His Wall Street bailouts pissed off a lot of people (on both the left and right) which created movements like OWS. What Obama has that Clinton/Biden don't is that he was our first black president. It was always going to be tough for any Democrat to match his enthusiasm with black people.
They just have to like you,feel you have thier back and most of all dont feel you betrayed them like Biden has done. https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/clinton/stories/blacks091798.htm