Randomness And Trading

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Tall Mike, Jul 18, 2020.

  1. Grantx

    Grantx

    He's read more than 600 trading books you should know. A god in the world of theory. Lolz
     
    #121     Jul 23, 2020
    themickey likes this.
  2. themickey

    themickey

    So many geniuses on ET, price don't lie, price not random... :rolleyes:
    images.jpg
     
    #122     Jul 23, 2020
    KCalhoun likes this.
  3. Grantx

    Grantx

    Yet in the next post our genius brethren enlighten the unwashed masses by informing us to eliminate random and only trade when it trends.

    Because that's how the pros do it we are told.
     
    #123     Jul 23, 2020
  4. oshjdf

    oshjdf

    As someone who uses both fundamental and chart for trading, I feel sick when I see this kind of debate.
     
    #124     Jul 23, 2020
  5. If you use fundamentals and you think they are helpful, that is great, but Tradex is correct, if you are really good at reading the chart, you don't NEED fundamentals, regardless of time frame.

     
    #125     Jul 23, 2020
    Tradex likes this.
  6. virtusa

    virtusa

    Exactly.
    Fundamentals only have importance when they influence the price. And the price is the only element that can generate you a profit or a loss. If it is not in the price it is irrelevant.
    And as relevant fundamentals are in the price you don't need to watch them. They are incorporated in the price level.
     
    #126     Jul 23, 2020
    formikatrading and Tradex like this.
  7. virtusa

    virtusa

    So many geniuses on ET, price is random... :rolleyes:
     
    #127     Jul 23, 2020
  8. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Fascinating discussion.

    When it comes to randomness and trading:

    • Some things like average daily range are relatively consistent, not random
    • Some chart patterns, like yesterday's PFE mean reversion bounce I traded profitably, are less random
    • It's HOW you manage risk and profit taking, your response to seemingly random price action that counts

    In poker we call it variance. Knowing your pot odds and opponents ranges helps decisions a lot, despite variance in what random card hits the flop, turn or river. :D
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2020
    #128     Jul 23, 2020
    CharlesS likes this.
  9. themickey

    themickey

    That's not really the issue with the immediate discussion.
    Everyone agrees that markets are not wholely random.
    But comments are being made "there is zero randomness." which is where I disagree.
     
    #129     Jul 23, 2020
    KCalhoun likes this.
  10. virtusa

    virtusa


    I would describe the randomness part as follow:
    It is the fight of the bulls against the bears. Eventually one of them will win and define the direction.

    I consider this as non random too as it is the result of a deliberate choice of people. They don't buy or sell randomly. They have an opinion and a target. Random would be just the opposite: people who buy or sell without having any idea why they do that, and buying or selling at any price without any strategy.

    This may look like random, but is not.
     
    #130     Jul 23, 2020