"Random wandering prices", "White noise"

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Resto, Nov 4, 2019.

  1. Resto


    Question addressed to guests of this site

    I am already convinced of the competence of registered users and the opinion of these idiots is not interesting to me.

    And so the question is

    For the first time, the idea of a random wandering of prices on the exchange was nevertheless expressed by a French mathematician

    Louis Bachelier in his dissertation "Theory of speculation"

    in the 50s of the last century this theory received an additional impetus and now

    it underlies any market theory.

    in the attached screenshot, I extended a section of "white noise" or in accordance with the theory -
    random wandering prices

    I apologize in advance, but I do not want to show you the points from which I produce
    my calculations and therefore I will hide the price chart

    in the following screenshots you can see how this segment I broke into an interconnected

    the work of two pairs of triangles

    This is the work of the primary and secondary price models.

    Can we trust this theory of random wandering prices?
  2. gaussian


    Captain Triangle here again.

    If I gave you 50 different realizations of brownian motion you'd come to the conclusion it was somehow predictable, even though there is nothing predictable about it (except your best guess of the next value is the mean of the series). It is no different than what you've done here. Humans are exceptionally good at finding patterns where none exist.
    bd10 and tommcginnis like this.
  3. Resto


    For example, such a math error

    There was such a geophysicist Marion King Hubbert in 1956. He published his famous article intended for colleagues and the article consisted of a little less than completely matan interspersed with condo geology.
    Unfortunately, the author was not too lazy to draw a bunch of funny graphics for the article. Hubbert did not have access to computers (they were then all over the world in the amount of three and a half pieces, each the size of a school gym, and the size of a Chinese calculator), and he drew everything using a raiser and a slide rule.
    But the reading public greatly liked its graphics.

    Citizens, nifiga did not understand in matan, but from the graphs they made far-reaching conclusions. One chart told the public that sometime in 1970 in America, oil production would peak and begin to decline. Schedule Two said that for the whole planet the same thing will happen somewhere between 1995 and 2005.

    Economists immediately assured that the lack of oil will cause an uncontrolled rise in gas prices and the collapse of the entire American, and then the global, economy.

    Hubbert just wanted to build a nuclear power plant in every American city.

    The very idea that in 1970 there would be a p ... q in America, caused bad buzz of shit. Hubbert was heavily criticized and generally ......

    In short, they did not begin to listen to it and Chernobyl was obviously not built enough.

    After some time in America, 1970 suddenly came, and the Americans became convinced. Still, half of the oil was produced and production went down.

    Ragged-headed enemies of America’s USA immediately took advantage of the fact, and in 1973 they announced an embargo on oil supplies to the USA.
    In fact, Hubbert was right only from the point of view of the matan - he solved the system of differential equations correctly.

    Hubbert made a mistake both in amplitude and in the exact year of the peak. And that is understandable. In 1956, he did not own the complete geological picture, and you cannot blame him for this.

    But the point is not the accuracy of the picture, but in principle.

    And the principle is that yes, all deposits on Earth have a finite volume.
    The people really sucked it, scared, and began to take action. No, do not build nuclear power plants and do not hammer a controlled thermonuclear fusion!

    At first, we agreed with rag-heads, lifted the embargo and brought gas prices back to normal. Then, to monitor oil production and give the world the most correct statistics in the world, the company put it - British Petroleum.

    The BP company immediately found itself in a situation where on the one hand it is impossible to lie much, for they will cease to believe, but it is also impossible to tell the truth, because there will be BP (exchange panic).

    Since then, BP has been issuing statistics to the afflicted, though they believe it less and less. And since 1980, the American racial EIA, Energy Information Administration, has joined the cause of fooling the population.
    EIA sharashka type government and seemingly has no right to lie.
  4. How many of these academics are billionaires from their papers?
    oraclewizard77 likes this.