Random Walk Theory Proved, once and for all.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mu200411, Nov 28, 2007.

  1. In this thread Random Walk Theory will be proved.
    There will be no discussion about TA.

    If I can draw charts using Random number series that look like stock charts, will it be a proof that Random Walk Theory is true or a proof that Random number series also follow the Nature law of Elliott?:confused:

    Anyway let's produce some charts first.:D

    N.B. Please move this thread to an appropriate forum.
  2. So, those are the only 2 choices? Random walk or "Nature's Laws?" How terribly confining the world must be for you.
  3. While you waste time in the land of academia and theories, the rest of us are making money.
  4. I try and keep an open mind with a very healthy dose of skepticism. Mark Fisher and Tom Williams, 2 very well respected traders already proved there is no random walk. Chaotic sure, but random, now way.
  5. Random walk, natural law, the rules for all-you-can-eat buffet...I don't care...they all tell me to RIDE THE DRAGON!

    Tehcnical Analysis? RIDE IT
    Fundamental? RIDE IT
    Chart Patterns? RIDE IT
    Candlesticks? RIDE IT
    Trendlines? RIDE IT

    See wh' 'm sayn' homey? I'm sayin that whatevah works WORKS and you use it to ride the dragon.

    Put down the books, wipe your tears, sip your beers and get to MAKIN THE MONEYS!

  6. gbos


    :) Unfortunately, a theory is an assumption that can't be proved, only disproved.
  7. The charts produced by RAND() look like some stock charts.
    So the Market is random.
    So you cannot predict the Market.
    You can make money only by your edge, don't try to predict the Market.
  8. An expanded chart.

    Chart patterns, they are all illusion.
    There is no dog in the cloud, just your imagination.
  9. gbos


    This model is a little more accurate.
  10. Good pts. But actually the market is worse than random in some respects and better in others (fat tails, mean, and kurtosis/skew).

    There are also other ways to display the data that show a clear difference in market behavior and random behavior.
    Read some mandelbrot.
    #10     Nov 28, 2007