I though I would post results from this simple experiment: pick 15 uniformly distributed random entry times between 9:30 and 3:45 PM. If the entry time is after 9:50 AM, then randomly go "short" or "long" at that time. Exit condition: either exit after N minutes holding time, or when a stop price is reached. I did this on one minute bars on the ES contract for one year using a stop price of 8 ticks (2 SP points) and holding time of 15 minutes. I repeated this random experiment 1000 times on the 1 year of data. Trading only 1 ES contract. Percent profit measured based on the $2500 initial margin requirement at interactive brokers. So $2500 profit would be 100% return. Histogram of net pct profit (1 contract ES minus $4.02 commission per round-trip) attached. Note: in the plot I didn't multiply by 100 so 1.0 = 100 % profit. Mean profitability over 1000 runs: -121.9% annual return Percentage of profitable runs: 11.4% (114 runs / 1000 trials) Mean profit of the top 11.4% runs: 52.7% annual return Best profit: 194.6% annual return So predictably, 88.6% of these "random traders" lost money in the last year while 11.4% made money, and the best money maker made a pretty good return close to 200%.