however trading in such a fashion should not lead to large losses on the trading side. THe majority of your losses would be through Commissions and Slippage NOT losing trades.
Since you are certain a market is in a upward bias, Arn't you describing an "Edge", In a upward biased market if you were to randomly buy on the open and sell on the close, you would make money even with commisions and slippage.
No one said random long entry. They said ANY random system. That means long and short with no bias toward direction.
on a day to day basis over time number of up days roughly = number of down days. therefore setting a mini-target during teh day say 10% of the atr you should be able to approximate a bernoulli trial. So your winnings/loss will be 50/50 with PF of 1. Losses will come from slippage/commish. therefore any system whihc does not have an edge will have around 50/50 win loss PF of 1. That's what i've found anyway. ne1 else got the same results?